> "If I took you back to 2020 and said in a little over 5 years there will basically be no human coders writing code anymore you'd almost certainly not believe me."
replyIt's 2026, one year after your predicted date, and that still hasn't happened though.
You say "just" 15 years, but Waymo is still only available in a few cities. That seems more like a slow, cautious rollout to me, not a fast takeoff. Society has had a lot of time to get used to (and tired of) the idea and come up with regulations.
replyMy guess is that the deployment of other types of robots will often be a similarly slow grind.
That's unlike the Internet, smart phones, and coding agents, which got user adoption at a much quicker pace.
Waymo was largely built pre-LLM and AI level funding - I think it might be a somewhat apple and pairs comparison.
replyMaybe research and development will speed up a bit, but I think it’s still going to require a lot of expensive experimenting in the real world.
replyThe thing about exponentials is if you admit 60%, it's pretty easy to admit 95%.
replyDepends on what kind of curve it is. 60% reliable is useless in most safety-related fields and getting to near-perfect reliability is tough.
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