> So "inference scaling is required to scale capabilities" doesn't mean that we're reaching the top of the S-curve in intelligence.

On its own it wouldn't. But that article came before the later article https://www.tobyord.com/writing/hourly-costs-for-ai-agents which adds the claim that inference (along with everything else being employed at present) is scaling poorly with increasing task lengths. Now maybe the December 2025 claim is wrong, or maybe things will change soon, but the February 2025 article surely doesn't establish either of those.