FWIW, I’ve referred someone 3 times to the same position because I’m very sure he would be a good fit, and I’ve seen his work.
But for trivial reasons (“He doesn’t seem enthusiastic enough” and “the other candidates are better at promoting/selling themselves”) , a couple of managers that are above me in seniority (and directly in the hiring loop) just refuse to pass said person.
In the end he’s stopped applying, and I feel shitty for referring him.