It's a fair point about the 'ceilings' but I'm not quite making that assumption.

I think a few things are going to happen:

1) The Open Weights never really fully catch up, because there's too much Engineering and integration going now. It's way more than 'weights'

2) The Commodity Chinese models never quite catch up for the same reason every other product they make does not catch up - while they will shine in some areas, it won't land fully.

3) Horizontal integration, supply chains, availability, SLA, security, branding, regulatory requirements - all of this will add up to something competitively maintainable.

Can you name a product category that has truly hit a ceiling? Cars, computers, phones, airplanes ... always seems to be a way to nudge forward.

Good point though.