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I don't know, but they aren't really in the same category either. The pandemic didn't shut down everything. It didn't really shut down much, people worked from home and got deliveries instead of doing things in person. There were sectors that were hit bad, but certainly not everything.

The AI crash is about stock market indicator ratios matching those that preceded other major crashes. That's what got me spooked. I don't want to be heavily invested in those companies when/if something bad happens.

by BeetleB1 hours ago|

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My point is that whether there will be a crash or not is incredibly hard to predict. COVID did not come with a stock market crash, but it affected employment much more than a possible AI crash will.

> The AI crash is about stock market indicator ratios matching those that preceded other major crashes.

The way to put faith in such indicators is not (only) by looking at prior crashes, but by forward testing them. Over the last decade, it's been common for me to hear a sentiment like yours: "Indicator X has always resulted in a serious downturn in the past, and we're in X territory now" - and no crash ensued. Over and over again.

Find me an indicator that someone back tested, and then also actually predicted a real crash (with zero false positives). The cost of even a single false positive can be huge. Ask the guys who pulled out (or sold their houses) when COVID struck.

Don't become the person who predicts 7 of the last 2 recessions.

by overfeed49 minutes ago|

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> My point is that whether there will be a crash or not is incredibly hard to predict. COVID did not come with a stock market crash

As someone who had early PUTs against the obvious industries (travel, hospitality) - what I didn't foresee was the insane amounts of government liquidity poured into the markets.

by BeetleB31 minutes ago|

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> As someone who had early PUTs against the obvious industries (travel, hospitality) - what I didn't foresee was the insane amounts of government liquidity poured into the markets.

They did it in 2008 as well. Although the amount in COVID seems insanely high, back in 2008, $700B was insanely high. People couldn't believe the government would spend that much to keep the economy going.

The real question is:

What else are you not foreseeing?