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...by, at most, a minute or so each year.

At least, that's what quartz watches could manage in the early 90s, as does the clock in my microwave oven from the early 2000s. Why would a modern disconnected device would be any worse?

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I'd suspect that a watch like the Pebble isn't syncing time with a Quartz crystal but by counting processor ticks - that would be a lot less precise in the long run.
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