Your statement that progress or intelligence is binary has no basis outside of intentional and ignorant pessimism.
In what basis do you presume our progress will continue exponentially?
I’ll take pessimism over wishful thinking.
We've only been in "technological takeoff" for ~250 years and are already using spaceships and computers to deliver and operate drones on Mars.
Now imagine 250 years + 1,000,000 years.
Even if 99.99% of people died from an asteroid, it might only take a few hundred (or thousand) years to rebuild the population and the world.
And once humans live on multiple planets, which is likely within 100 years, the odds of permanent extinction become remote.
It's not just that we need to have people living on another planet, we need a fully self-sufficient civilization on another planet which is at least 200+ years of sustained effort probably more because it took that long under the relatively ideal and easy conditions of simply settling another continent. Then factor in that their civilization would be even more precarious than ours and face many more dangers.
Life is still likely (not guaranteed) to escape Earth one way or another, however long it takes and however many attempts it takes.