Yes, this is the story I see playing out at my employer. Software is cheap, but the know-how to host and be accountable for uptime still keeps the actual deployments consolidated among a few groups. But yes, there are a bunch of productivity helpers that people have vibe coded that live on their laptops.

Anthropic also had a demand problem just a couple months ago, which led them to this on- vs off-peak usage thing that was driving people crazy, along with frequent outages. Then they made a deal with xAI and all has been mostly well since. Moonshot is making deals right now as well for compute.

A lot of OpenAI/Anthropic compute actually belongs to the hyperscalers. They have long term contracts and will be able to charge some kind of margin for access to the compute they've secured. However I don't think this would last long as the hyperscalers will be able to undercut them.

As an open weights model Kimi will quickly find hosts other than moonshot, so I don’t expect this to really cause any issues for open weights adoption.

I have been using synthetic and my understanding is that they plan on hosting Kimi3. Open models mean Inferrence is distributed

I expect what's most likely to happen is that either Anthropic or OpenAI end up becoming a vendor of record for the government and get a bailout. And then their whole business model will be serving use niches which would be considered too sensitive for Chinese models. That's the only plausible business model I can see here.