Moore's law is over in the literal sense but silicon continues to advance relatively quickly.

This claim isn't really outlandish in any way. It's not hard to imagine:

- Future models being able to handle current frontier models' workflows with much higher efficiency.

- Future consumer devices like phones having 2-4x the RAM onboard along with GPU/NPU performance greatly increased in 10-15 years.

It's probably not so bad. (I am not an expert on anything.) The big blocker is probably a roughly single-order-of-magnitude decrease in the cost per MiB of VRAM. (That obviously goes out the window if the LLM frontier people find, in the nearish future, new ways to do more with more: to significantly push up the threshold of diminishing returns from more VRAM or other resources. But that doesn't seem to be waiting to happen.) That's not clearly unachievable, especially given that ASML has apparently already made significant efficiency gains recently while there's no shortage of demand to justify R&D right now. Many customers are also likely to increase their hardware budgets: the kind of organisation that used to pay big money for Sun workstations is likely to consider spending that kind of money again if it saves them several hundred dollars a month in LLM plans.

I need a !remind me 15 years.