This depends on the specific regulation. The datacentre moratoria probably give open-weight models time to catch up by tempering the extent to which the leading companies can turn their capital advantage into market share.
What infrastructure will these open weight models be trained on?
One, the infrastructure is being built for inference. Not training. If all we were doing was training on datacentres, I think America probably has enough already for near-term commercial needs.
Anthropic was blocked from releasing Fable without any such level of incident. OAI was also briefly blocked from releasing 5.6. Why do you think there is no policy appetite?
Doesn't change the effect. Plenty of good policy is enacted by self-interested politiicans.
Sorry, I was unclear. I mean that politicians being self serving doesn't tell you whether a policy is good or not.
Complex society is a potent counterargument to this hypothesis. Systems that rely on good people to work are fundamentally flawed. Instead, the game has to be about aligning self interets in favour of the collective.
Because China seems pretty eager to serve the rest of the world's needs if the USA doesn't stop their idiotic "safety" nonsense.
During the Cold War the nuclear arms race was brought under control gradually, because it was mutually beneficial, but it took time to build trust. This is no different. Nobody wins from the race.
I don't "know", I'm interpreting the world based on the knowledge I have and the information available to me.
China has never been one to care much about things like ethics or safety. While the west worries about climate change, China burns more coal than ever before. While the west balks at things like gene editing, the chinese press on with human enhancing research.
So I have no reason to believe they share in Anthropic's constant fearmongering over AI capabilities.
> Nobody wins from the race.
We win. I'm really looking forward to the day the chinese finally start manufacturing memory and GPUs. We desperately need more competition in this area to collapse hardware prices and make local AI models viable.
The optimal state of the world is one where all the billionaires are out there pouring their entire fortunes into training ever more godlike AIs for everyone else to use at ever cheaper prices. They can never be allowed to "win", ever, because if they do the competition ends and it turns into technofeudalism. Let them exhaust their fortunes on AI training then leak the weights so everyone can use them.
It is of course given that in raw numbers the kitchen and biller-room will consume more energy in the household, but looking at raw numbers is shallow.
The sad truth is that a lot of people are not going to believe it until something happens and people die. Successfully preventing that from happening will be seen as evidence that the prevention wasn’t needed.
So? That's like saying "these guns do have the bullet shooting capabilities claimed".
I want all of those cyberwarfare capabilities for myself, precisely so I can defend myself from the onslaught that's coming whether they regulate it or not. This "lol only a select few ultratrusted gigacorporations get access" thing is absolute nonsense.
It's a front for regulatory capture, it's the means for pulling up the latter behind them, for ushering in the technofeudalism that will put us all in the permanent underclass. I simply refuse to accept any of it. If people die that's the price of freedom.
> We’re more protected by limited access to lab equipment and reagents than by difficulty.
As it should be.
I’m going to file that under “bad plans”.
Both countries are engaging in different flavors of censoring.
Frankly I'm inclined to say that it might also be faked: this drops just days after a new Chinese model does with the usual effect on OAIs projected stock price?
This is how the financiers look at this and whatever you think it is right or wrong, it does showcase “capability”.