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Not to mention, physical limits to lithography are slowing down significantly... so tech will continue to evolve more slowly... it'll never be the jump from 1080-1990 again, for example, even though 1990-2000 was pretty close, 2000-2010 much slower and since 2010 slower still.

What's as or more weird is how much hardware is backordered, and how much live hardware is allocated, but waiting on facilities for operation. And how many facilities are years behind at this point already... all on various credit and dept swaps between all the involved companies... it's not just a balloon, it's a house of cards balanced on a balloon.

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The process node size in William the Conqueror's time was really off the charts.
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supposedly, the next step is into fiber & optics.

but I generally agree, people put a lot of faith in the exponential leaps vs the exponential space.

You tell them we're not living on mars any time soon and they'll bring up christopher columbus.

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How would fiber and optics help if the bottleneck is computation efficiency and not data transfer?
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Are fabs going to ramp up capacity? Wouldn't it make more business sense for them to just not ramp up capacity and enjoy the higher prices?
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I wonder what shovels were worth after the Gold Rush faltered. Blacksmiths probably had all the scrap iron they could ever care for.
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Nah, "selling shovels" is mostly a metaphor, the amount of iron that went into mining equipment was insignificant, beyond some local demand peaks. The majority of the business was consumables.

A key thing to understand about the gold rush is that it was not a major economic event, or at least nowhere near as big as the participants thought it would be, hence the tradegy.

The AI gold rush is different in that there actually is a mountain of "shovels" large enough to flood the global market quite severely.

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