Could there, conceivably, be some third factor at play here? One that both led OpenAI to have concerns about releasing GPT-2 as well as led Microsoft to invest in OpenAI?
reply> In 2016, the Chicago Cubs won the World Series
reply> This broke a hundred-year drought
> A few days later, Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election
It's not a 100% gold standard RCT or whatever...