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you're a lot more skilled than I am if you're able to know the abstractions and patterns you want while only have a weak grasp on the actual code. For me the abstractions emerge as I understand what I'm actually working with
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I think you can have some system design in mind upfront, but agree the bulk emerges as you code. Clean Code practices worked exactly this way in which you write and then rewrite the clean code.
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I agree, but this works too because AI makes prototyping more rapid. It's common to be stuck with suboptimal solutions because of time constraints. Maybe the feature isn't really what the customer wants, or maybe the code isn't actually very good. But it reaches prod anyway.

But, with AI, the cost of code has gone down more than it already has. Well, cheap things are easy to throw away. So you prototype, prototype, prototype, and close the loop as much as possible with the customer. True agile development, not big A Agile.

The problem is this requires alignment from management, and we're just not seeing it at many company. They can't grasp that things have changed, and that throwing away code is free. They don't trust engineers to close that gap, so customers and stakeholders are still waaaaaay over there and we're delivering features they don't want.

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IMO "get the model to do all the planning work upfront, review and iterate the plan" is backwards. It works better if you do an initial plan yourself and then have the AI review it (and iterate as necessary). Makes you think about the design for a bit so you can have a semblance of a mental model.
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I have never seen a plan written by LLM that wasn’t vague and light on details, every time I need to ask for more details and every time I ask to implement it trips over some dead end in the plan, discards the plan and continues as if there was no plan to begin with. Planning feels often just narrating the request and a wish list then what a human would do - methodically build enough understanding so that you’re confident of the direction you choose. LLM plans are overhyped and overrated.
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This just doesn't match my experience writing idiomatic C code for embedded real-time systems with ChatGPT-5.5 and -5.6. Are Opus and Fable really that different? I general I find that a fully correct implementation for some function may take an hour and be nearly one-shot, but going from there to code I'd be willing to actually commit is at least 4x the time commitment with regular back-and-forth -- so four hours of deep engagement for every one hour of one-shot. ChatGPT-5.6 Sol seems to be better that -5.5 at the one hour do-it portion, but worse at the four hour do-it-well portion.
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I haven't done "spec driven development" in my entire career, 15+ years

Until managers give up on Agile, we'll never get time to actually write specs

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Sure. But try it on a project on non-trivial size and then tell us the cost of it. LLMS are billed per token.
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Depends on how long that planning/review cycle takes.
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True, but I think people are also missing the trick behind markdowns that reference each other and are used for context window management. They go in your source control, they are reusable, extendable, and composable in the same way code is. So planning is not a one-off effort. It compounds over time. If you're doing it right your plan is referencing automation techniques - testing, CI/CD, etc. This further compounds so that the agents verify their own work against the standards that you set.

To be honest, the models are getting so good that they do most of this unprompted now.

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Agreed, all of the staff/principal engineers I work with are ~99%+ AI generated code, and increasing business value delivered as a result. This is on planet scale infra not CRUD apps. (And yes, you do need to carefully review the output and give steers/corrections. It’s still faster.)

At this point if you can’t get the agent to write good code then either I) you are in a very specific niche (like Karpathy trying to write NanoGPT) that is extremely out-of-distribution, or II) skill issue, you need to learn how to prompt better.

It’s fine to have a skill gap! Just don’t delude yourself that the tools are bad and everyone claiming they are good is wrong.

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How is a GPT implementation “extremely out of distribution” but “planet scale infra” isn’t? That’s got me totally confused about your point that I was taking seriously.
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A lot of stuff that underpins planet-scale infra is open source and has been for a long time. The general approaches and architectures for it have also been widely discussed and litigated in the commons so it's not just the code - the specific why is also very well documented.

So despite its importance much of it is actually pretty in-distribution.

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Okay, but then that does not square at all with calling a GPT implementation out-of-distribution, let alone "extremely" so.
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it's really cool how in the past measuring developer productivity was incredibly difficult, but now its become easy if someone's making a point about LLMs
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btw, your last paragraph makes you sound like an ass.
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