You say that like the tech world isn't littered in a field of dead and failed companies and billions of dollars burned on failed ventures and ideas. Sure LLMs have proven they have value, but where is the trillion dollars of current investment going to be paid back from? So far it is still entirely speculation that they have such a high value, and they can't just play the long game of "well after a few decades of production and iteration it will add up" because half the hardware cost is going to be obsolete energy burning trash for them in 5 years.
replyThey very often have been in the past. Why do you think this time is different?
reply“Often” is load bearing. I don’t think markets are more likely than not to be musical chair shaped. To make this conversation more concrete, give me a falsifiable prediction on there existing a bubble. And then I’ll tell you if I believe in it or not.
replyThe price of inference is going to go so low that OpenAI and Anthropic will not be able to turn a profit, thus cannot afford the investment into more data centers, thus crash due to investment in the space having been overdone
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