Well, it is always possible that OpenAI and Anthropic have some secret sauce that they are hiding that nobody knows about. However, the pricing of tokens on places like HuggingFace and OpenRouter suggests that probably isn't true. In addition, the lack of reliability and general slowness of Opus and Fable at various times also suggests that.

Now, the one wildcard in all of this could be Google. They are on the eighth generation of their TPU and have been holding their cards extremely close to the vest. I don't think anybody has a good read on exactly how much capacity they have. Most things you can kind of figure out the overall business numbers and what's going on in Google--the TPU area is one of the exceptions. I know a couple of big customers and even they don't have any visibility on that front.