Political decisions that lead to that point and geopolitical situation. The russians cut the gas on their terms because it would have happened anyway and they were not stupid. Then somebody else blew the pipe up and the whole discussion conveniently ended. The divestment from russian economy and blocking imports was already established, but germany and others could not phase out the gas that fast.
replyStill, when did Germany cut off Russian gas back then? I don't think there is particular complexity in the sequence of events back then. Germany back then was not seeking an end to supplies then and there, if I recall correctly.
replyBut it did exactly this. The pipeline was not the only way to import Russian gas.
replyWhat exactly did Germany do when? You mean after a huge supply cut by Russia, Germany moved to reduce/end use of Russian gas?
replyRussia did not completely cut gas exports to Europa, but reduced in substantially, but this was a reaction to sanctions and the decision in Europa to reduce imports from Russia (but more slowly). In fact, Russia still exports to countries in Europa (to be ended in 2027), but Germany stopped gas imports from Russia in September 2022. So the order of things was that Germany decided to reduce imports from Russia, Russian then gradually reduced and then stopped exporting via pipelines to Germany, and Germany then started to import LNT gas as a replacement but - in contrast to others - not from Russia.
replyThe German political decision to not join with Russia and invade Ukraine (via Poland?).
replyJust because it was the right decision doesn't mean there are not downsides.
Accepting potential consequences is not the same as oneself cutting things off. Germany did not seek to end supplies then and there.
replyEdit: there was never any chance of Germany invading Ukraine then/joining Russia on any invasion.
It doesn't matter what they wanted to do. What matters is what happened. As a result of their actions they got cut off. If Germany had invaded Ukraine (via Poland?) the gas might still be on. Of course we don't know that because other countries would likely take offense to that action and I'm not willing to predict how the world would change if they had. (I can't even imagine change would cause them to be willing to invade in the first place, much less how everyone else would respond.)
replyPolitics often are about the unintended consequences. Often they are also unforeseen.
Germany joining the Russian invasion was never anything even remotely in the option space at all - utterly inconceivable in 2022. (Not aware of Russia seeking any such support there either.)
replyI think it is clear to everybody that wasn't an possible option.
replyThere are consequences for it that though.
Sorry, but I think it is absurd to say there was a Russian reaction because Germany did not join their invasion of Ukraine,
replyThe absurdity is intentional.
replyHowever it is still correct. If Germany had joined Russia (and got away with it!), there is every reason to think the pipeline would still be flowing.
Ukraine would have blown up the pipeline anyway. And the land pipelines would have been cut off to Germany by the Eastern Europeans. So no, the gas would not still be flowing with a high probability. That's so absurd.
replyIf Germany had gone to war Ukraine would be split between Germany and Russia now and the pipeline would be running. It is absurd to think there was any possibility of Germany going to war on Russia's side, but the result of them doing so is far easier to predict.
replyOf course if they had done that other countries would likely object and so we can go on and on with what could have been (for starters the propaganda would be all different). There are no easy answers and we can never know what would have happened.
Probably not directly invading, but there was a strong possibility of Germany supporting the Russian invasion, just as they're doing with the invasion of Iran.
replyThere was absolutely no possibility for Germany supporting the Russian invasion.
replyWell I mean they already did support the invasion for a while by buying their gas.
replyA strong possibility? Where do you get your news from?
replyI think what grandparent is very very fucking poorly trying to say is, Germany/EU could've accepted the "annexation" of Ukraine like it did Crimea in 2014. "Bad Putin! But what can we do."
replyThat was never considered by anyone in German politics. It's the first time I'm hearing about this here in these posts.
replyPeople don't seem to understand hypotheticals. Of course it was never considered by anyone. There was no possibility anyone sane would consider it.
replyHowever we can still discuss what would have happened if they did.