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> You can't win a war purely through air superiority and bombs. That's not a new lesson but it's one the administration failed to learn through history and is apparently now failing to learn through practice.

This is a lesson that conservative administrations have refused to learn for decades. I hope Curtis Lemay is experiencing a toasty afterlife for all of the suffering he has caused humanity due to a zealous conviction that aerial bombing campaigns win wars, and his lasting legacy in conservative war strategy.

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The delusion is somewhat over a century old now. It originates from factions within the military community (vs. politicians) and there's nothing particularly conservative about it -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Mitchell#Post-war_advoca...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bomber_Mafia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_hawk

Big picture, I'd categorize the problem as human nature and "sounds too good to be false".

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> But it would have required boats in the water and boots on the ground. But that puts many more lives at risk, would have been very unpopular (much moreso then the current war situation), etc.

Boats in the water and boots on the ground can be popular. But it needs a credible story, told by credible sources.

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There's control and there's enough control so not a single missile can hit a cargo ship in the strait.

Maritime insurers are understandably conservative. If the ship stays trapped it continues to pay premiums (insurance company wins). If it risks passage it risks a $10M payout (insurance company loses). If there's risk of a single missile the insurers won't allow the ships through. How can an insurance company thousands of miles away stop a ship? "If you risk the passage you're not covered by insurance"

Pretty sure Iran has spent the last 30 years ensuring that they can mount gorilla attacks indefinitely in the face of overwhelming invasion.

That has been their deterrent strategy for decades. Intelligence analysts out front should have told ya.

(A massive invasion would also not open the strait.)

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