upvote
> For the most-dominant military power in the world to "whoopsy" run out of weapons because of a low-stakes engagement isn't readily believable.

Wow, yeah, you'd need to have morons at the top of the chain of command and subordinates afraid to speak out in order for something like that to happen. Nothing like the US government today at all.

reply
(Not American, need to preface with this) I think the US military has shown itself to be extremely competent in the last war. Reading about Desert Storm and later the invasion of Iraq it's just insane. It's still possible they miscalculated how rapidly warfare would change, but to call them morons... As far as I can see, there are only three proven militaries in the world, the US, Israel and Ukraine, and the US is orders of magnitude larger than the rest. Have we already forgotten what happened to Maduro? What other country in the history of the world could pull something like that off? Russia tried at Hostomel, didn't go so well.
reply
> Have we already forgotten what happened to Maduro? What other country in the history of the world could pull something like that off?

Venezuela was a raid, not a full on war. And it was so lopsided it was like putting Michael Jordan against a 10-year-old and based on that performance determining that Jordan is the GOAT. It demonstrated that against a remarkably unprepared and unready opponent the US can do well, which tells you nothing about the US's capabilities in actual warfare against a peer, near peer, or just damned determined opponents.

> Russia tried at Hostomel, didn't go so well.

That was not a comparable action to the Maduro raid. The raid was an in-and-out operation, with no need to control any territory for a significant period. Hostomel was a battle over control of territory.

reply
Venezuela was also a palace coup. They didn't raid, they came to collect.
reply
That as well, what resistance was present was reduced from what it could have been (not everyone was in on it).
reply
As a note, while there was no war Russia has already acquired Crimea a few years before and it was only a matter of time before invasion itself was to happen, so Ukraine was preparing for that attack more or less.
reply
I think their point is that it doesn't really matter how competent the lower levels of the command structure are if the ones at the very top are bumbling fools unwilling to listen.
reply
If you don’t have an objective, no amount of military might is going to get you there. This was the USA’s biggest mistake in Afghanistan, Iraq, and now Iran.
reply
Since the objective was never disclosed, one might assume it was to deplete our magazine depth.
reply
It's not a tactical failure of the US; it's a strategic one. The US operates a tremendously powerful military, but that doesn't change the fact that the war with Iran was a tremendous strategic blunder. "Moronic" is a pretty fair characterization.
reply
But running out of missiles—which is the accusation being made above—would be a tactical and logistics failure, not a strategic one.
reply
> But running out of missiles—which is the accusation being made above—would be a tactical and logistics failure, not a strategic one.

It's absolutely a strategic failure to enter into a war without sufficient munitions or logistical capability to sustain the war.

reply
Is executing a strategy that you (should) know to be impossible to implement because of logistical limitations really a logistics failure?

It’s not as if the US, a few years ago, said it needed way more long-range precision weapons in 2026, and didn’t get them, despite promises to the contrary.

reply
You have tactics and strategy mixed up. Killing Iran leadership was a tactical success. Continually shooting long range missiles into a giant country is a strategic failure.
reply
Unless the counts were unclear it would actually be all three!
reply
A bit disparaging of morons. It takes a special kind of imbecile to ignore decades of war planning that pointed out the vulnerability of the strait.
reply
You think the US has shown itself as to be extremely competent in the Iran war? If you were talking about Iraq, that was completely different leadership.
reply
Not only leadership, war looked different back then. The Ukraine war made everyone throw away the classic war playbook.

At the time of the Iraq war the US was holding all the cards. It had a perfected playbook, the optimal technology, and support from the population. In the Iran war the old playbook is ineffective, the technology is too expensive to keep it up, and the popular support for a war demanded by another country isn't there.

And yes... you have the current crop of leaders who couldn't lead their way out of a wet paper bag.

reply
The US killed almost the entire Iranian regime leadership with minimal cost. What definition of competence are you going by?
reply
The son of the elderly Iranian ruler, aligned politically with his father, took over. The war prompted Iran to operate one of the world's largest economic pressure levers, to great effect. The U.S.'s unilateralism, leadership rhetoric, and war crimes (like bombing a school) have lost it a significant amount of global goodwill.

None of that seems like it jibes with your description.

reply
None of that contradicts what I said. Obviously, the Iranian regime will replace them.
reply
It does. The initial strike, while effective, has proven to achieve absolutely nothing, or less than nothing. Neither Iran's military nor logistic nor even administrative capability was impacted to any serious extent. The population, of which a large proportion was against the regime and potentially on the brink of a revolt, quickly fell in line and became supporters, faced with the external opposition. And Iran has proven its ability to unilaterally close the straight of Hormuz, a crippling blow to the entire world's economy that the USA is simply unable to stop.

So again - the execution shows significant tactical competence. But the strategic direction is absolutely disastrous.

reply
Success or failure isn’t judged by how many explosions or dead bodies each side racks up. Def Sec McNamara admits he made that mistake during the Vietnam war when he repeatedly asserted the US was winning with all sorts of statistics and charts with steep lines pointing up.

The real question is whether political objectives are achieved. In Iran, those were vaguely defined to begin with, but depending on the moment and mood of the President they were:

1. Prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon now or in the foreseeable future (Not Achieved)

2. Remove Iran’s theocratic anti-American regime (Not Achieved)

3. Maintain international access to key shipping routes (Negative Achieved, much worse than pre-war status quo)

So after spending billions of dollars, depleting stockpiles of our most modern precision weapons against a vastly inferior military technologically, losing 18 American lives and resulting in both global economic disruption and to our Gulf allies, the war has failed to accomplish any objectives and left everyone in a worse position than before the war except the IRGC.

reply
You don’t know the difference between tactics and strategy.

The US has been consistently tactically excellent. Strategically this is a blundering loss.

If you strategically aim your awesome unmatched powers the wrong way you can still lose.

reply
Minimal cost? We’re at about a billion dollars per primary target and rising. Not to mention north of 250 US casualties. I’d hardly call that minimal cost.

Our ability to defend our allies in the region is non existent, and we lost almost all of our radar capabilities which will take a decade minimum to rebuild. That’s assuming hostilities end tomorrow.

reply
I'd argue that seriously upending global energy markets (and perhaps the entire economy) is quite a high cost.
reply
Politically, yes.
reply
Nobody stateside is immune from the very real, very steep, very ongoing financial costs of this “conflict”.
reply
“With minimal cost”

Are you trolling

reply
From a military standpoint, no.
reply
Yes, but the military exists for the nation, not the other way around, so a military success that turns into a national disaster is not a military success at all.

That's why even in the nuclear Navy, as crazy as they are about reactor safety, they would train and preach continuously that "safety of ship" is more important than reactor safety, because the reactor is not safe if the ship is not safe.

reply
https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/iran-strikes-us-bases-mid...

From a military standpoint, yes. You have to have your head buried in the sand to think we didn’t have significant loss of military assets in the region.

reply
A very cursory investigation suggests the Iran war has cost the US approximately 100 billion dollars. About half in hardware and half in increased costs for citizens.

These costs are continuing since there is no end in sight and it seems the US is running out of some of the equipment it has used.

reply
And then what happened?
reply
tactical win - they achieved that quite easily.

strategic failure - iran shrugged it off and now are causing massive damage to world economy with no end in sight.

reply
Congrats, now even more hardline leadership got power. And it was conclusively proven that US trears accomodating or measured responses as weakness, so the new leadership wont makr the same mistake.

Iran gained straight of hormuz. It gained chuckpaz and confidence too. It is now itching to play major regional power

reply
The US fully achieved its objective of distracting attention away from the Trump-Epstein files.
reply
How many lives has the US lost? What has Iran lost so far in the conflict with the US and Israel (a conflict which is not over)? The propaganda attempting to spin this as setting up as a strategic defeat for the US, is almost comical.

As is, the US can stand-off and torment Iran for a very, very long time.

$31 trillion economy. $94,000 GDP per capita (nearly 3x Japan for reference). The US can spend $100 billion annually on bombing Iran for the next decade entirely without harming its economy in a meaningful way.

The US doesn't have to let off. Iran is pinned, massively eroded, and the US is only losing money. Iran has lost all of its proxies, its military is entirely broken (and fully capable of waging a guerrilla conflict), its navy is gone, its airforce is gone, its military manufacturing is substantially eroded, and Russia is boiling. The reason the US is going back and forth on peace, is for the same exact same reason it's in the US interest to bleed Russia. It's this: let's pretend we want peace, while we endlessly grind Iran down.

reply
Damn the USA seems really powerful, I’m assuming handling a country like Iran shouldn’t give them any trouble
reply
One of these things is not like the other. Russia is a threat to Europe, and is in the midst of invading a country with a lot of agricultural, industrial, and cultural upside that should be on the road to EU integration. Bombing the snot out of Russian trenches in eastern Ukraine might even be a good idea.

And the reasons for bombing Iran are...?

reply
Ahhh. The Maduro operation. You remember a soldier from Maduro's guard saying they were brought to their knees by a wonder weapon.

Shame the wonder weapon didn't surface in Ukraine nor in Iran nor in Yemen where it was desperately needed.

But we hear about the wonder weapon and how wonderful it was on TV. Must be really true :).

reply
Desert Storm was 35 years ago. Almost everyone who fought in it is out of service or dead.

Iraqi invasion was 23 years ago. Again, almost everyone who was part of the initial invasion is out of service. I wouldn't call the occupation of either Afghanistan or Iraq "extremely competent." More like the exact opposite.

reply
> As far as I can see, there are only three proven militaries in the world, the US, Israel and Ukraine

What in your view makes these ones proven and other ones not proven?

reply
I was left scratching my head why Ukraine would be there, but not Iran, on the basis that it too has stood its ground in what the superpower aggressor planned to be short and decisive conflict.
reply
Iran has survived this war so far because the aggressor hasn't made any attempt to actually defeat them. It's very different from Ukraine, which is holding its own against an all-out invasion. Iran might well be able to withstand an all-out invasion by the US, but it hasn't had to yet.

Right now, the US is half-heartedly trying to bomb Iran into submission, something that in the entire history of aerial warfare has worked exactly once (and even that one time is debatable).

reply
Have they? Obviously there have been a ton of issues due to the US’s strategy in Iran. But almost nobody in the US has any affect from this war. Gas prices are up a bit. Mildly inconvenient for the majority of people, and that’s the biggest failure people are mad about.

Meanwhile Iran is in rough shape

reply
> Gas prices are up a bit.

A gross understatement.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=E...

Zoom in on this year and you'll see it's below $3 a gallon in January and February, then by the end of March it's over $4 and mostly above after that. That's a 33% increase. That's a substantial and sustained hike in a short time.

reply
Gas prices are up a bit? In my area it’s gone up at least $2 from before the war. Which is just another way that everything has gotten so much more expensive recently (not that all of that is caused by the war).
reply
Agreed yes that’s not great. But really if that’s the worst thing you’re noticing in your daily life at home, things must be pretty ok?

You must see the difference between us being unhappy that gas is more expensive, versus somebody living in Iran worrying that their entire government and country is in chaos.

Obviously this war is bad for a bunch of reasons, but the US is completely fine at home relatively.

reply
> Obviously this war is bad for a bunch of reasons, but the US is completely fine at home relatively.

With the exception of total wars, the domestic standard of living has very little to do with how well or not a foreign war is going.

How good Americans are living is a non-sequitur with regards to the war objectives set by the political and military leaders in Washington and Tehran. War, being politics by other means, has to be measured by political objectives. The average American didn't even notice when America relinquished control of Afghanistan to the Taliban, amd yet it was a clear-cut failure to achieve GW's stated goals.

reply
Maduro operation wasn’t a war my good man and the other two you reference were 20 and 30 years ago.
reply
Regarding Iraq, please Google “Dick Cheney 1994” he predicted exactly what happened in 2003.
reply
Extremely competent military expert: "Sir, we should hold back up strikes to preserve the stockpile of valuable high-precision missiles"

Someone higher up the chain of command: "Fire the missiles, or I'll replace you with someone who will"

reply
Military competence has nothing to do with running low on munitions after months of war. There are four ways to address the issue: have larger stockpiles before the war, ramp up production during the war, end the war, or don't go to war in the first place. None of those can be done by the military. It's all up to the civilian leadership, and the current civilian leadership is catastrophically incompetent. The current commander in chief is a "fucking moron," to quote his former Secretary of State.
reply
(Am an American, don't know if it matters that I preface with this)

The US military is quite powerful.

Donald Trump is a moron.

Pete Hegseth is also a moron whose only qualification is that he looks like what the moron Donald Trump imagines someone playing his role would look like in the movies/TV.

reply
Never attribute to malice that which can easily be explained by stupidity.
reply
It's been discussed for decades that the US would run out of precision munitions in any multi-week conflict. The presumption was that the US would either be in a nuclear war at that point, or a ground campaign would complete the task along with dumb munitions.

That the US decided to expend it's precision weapon stockpile on a conflict of choice with no ground or dumb bombing campaign to fallback on is a mystery for later generations. It is not unbelievable that Iran is capable of blocking a dumb bombing campaign indefinitely, or that the viable targets for such a campaign are politically untenable.

reply
The US is always going to slap a JDAM kit on for better effect.
reply
> That the US decided to expend it's precision weapon stockpile on a conflict of choice with no ground or dumb bombing campaign to fallback on is a mystery for later generations.

There is no mystery. A dumb bombing campaign requires air superiority, and Iran actually has reasonable anti-air defense. They're not a bunch of guys running around with AK-74s.

The US absolutely can achieve that. But it _will_ result in aircraft losses, and it requires detailed planning. Both of these are not acceptable anymore.

reply
> Iran actually has reasonable anti-air defense. They're not a bunch of guys running around with AK-74s.

To help put that in perspective: Iran's GDP today is a ~7x stronger than Iraq's was (in 2003) relative to the US GDP at each time.

In other words, they can spend more on military stuff making them a tougher opponent by default. Plus multiples of population, more land-area, etc.

reply
> For the most-dominant military power in the world to "whoopsy" run out of weapons because of a low-stakes engagement isn't readily believable.

This is a concerning statement, as it implies it'd be impossible for the United States to lose an engagement regardless of any and all evidence.

reply
At the same time, this is how intelligence and counter intelligence works.

As much as I want to believe mainstream media, what is verifiable opinion vs state sponsored media and propaganda?

Or are we not supposed to think and assume all headlines are real?

reply
Also, the most powerful country of the world, with the most advanced medical science, faling to manage a deadly measles outbreak because a conspiracy theoricist and antivax has been chosen as Secretary of Health wouldn't have been readily believable just 12 years ago. Yet here we are.
reply
How’s this. I can tell you with absolute certainty the US has a lot of munitions, they have not run out.

Let’s stop pretending that the only reason Iran isn’t glass at the moment is because of the good will of the US.

Unbelievable.

reply
I guess you view what would be the worst crime against humanity ever to be committed (and yes, I really do mean to include all the previous ones in that statement) to be an acceptable answer to “oh, we have no more smart bombs, let’s just kill everyone in this country”?

Not committing a crime against humanity is not “good will”.

reply
Then what is good will? A movie character?
reply
Not killing someone when one can (in a not them or me situation) is not “good will”, it’s one of the most basic ethical principles. I’m surprised you need to ask this question.
reply
Ah, I have a trolley to show you.
reply
I agree that if things were different, things would be different, but I'm not sure what this adds to the conversation.
reply
If my grandmother had wheels, she would have been a bike.

The article didn't mention anything about US strategic or tactical nuclear weapons, though that must be a fantasy of yours (along with the Chimp in the Whitehouse).

reply
I’m absolutely on the record of being against nukes. Not really sure why you posed that personal attack, but it’s about as shitty a thing as you could say.

You feel better?

reply
How are those things even related? The US has lots of munitions, because US goodwill is the reason Iran isn't glass? That's a complete non-sequitur.

The US's stockpile of conventional precision munitions and the US's nuclear arsenal are two very different things. The depth of one has little to do with the other.

The US hasn't run out of precision conventional munitions, but it is running low. There's no reason this should come as a surprise. The US has been fighting a medium intensity air war for months without making any move to ramp up production of those munitions.

The reason Iran isn't glass is because doing otherwise would be a global catastrophe, and even the assholes in charge don't want to go down as the worst mass murderers in human history.

reply
This doesn't account for the substantial difference between military deception and political (self-)deception.

The Midway water shortage deception was a way to gain a tactical, followed by strategic advantage.

Running out of missiles is an "incovenient truth" for the zionist pro-war crowd. History is littered with innumerable examples of political leaders not adequately considering ground-truth military and logistical realities (Confederates fighting in Pennsylvania, Germans invading Russia, etc.).

reply
Leave it to HN to over-intellectualize and twist something obvious because why not?

The cretins in charge of the country think the problem is that the soldiers don't have enough testosterone and have too much facial hair, and these people are capable of this next-level deception of the enemy? I don't think so.

Their idea of an army is the movie "300" - on oiled up, violent homoerotic phantasy. Soon, that's what's going to be actually left.

reply
Most dominant does not mean most intelligent
reply
> nation without a navy can now inexpensively counter a nation with one

I would argue that you are right with Ukraine vs Russia since the former has sunk so many of latter's assets. But that has not been the case with US vs Iran.

reply
Given that all of the advisors who warned against starting something with Iran called this out as a risk (before hegseth cleaned house of anyone competent willing to speak up), why do you think this is so unbelievable?
reply
> For the most-dominant military power in the world to "whoopsy" run out of weapons because of a low-stakes engagement isn't readily believable.

Sadly, I find it very believable. To build them costs lots of time and money. To use them, not so much. Going low tech might risk more casualties in some cases - and so all the political problems that follow along from that.

We've also seen plenty of wishful thinking from the civilian leaders of the military. I'm sure that in their minds, each strike they launch is surely the one that will finally break Iran, better hit them with the good stuff, shock and awe.

They've also been purging all kinds of top military officers, presumably over culture war issues and insufficient sycophancy.

reply
>For the most-dominant military power in the world

Russia kept saying its the second most powerful military in the world and now it's the second most powerful military in Ukraine. You can't just keep saying words and then think they're true because you keep repeating them.

There's no secret US weapons factories hidden away somewhere, the inadequacy of the US industrial base to maintain production for long term war have been known for decades and were in some sense even an intentional shift after the end of the Cold War.

reply
I was thinking about this too because some years ago, there was a ranking article that’s now unavailable by the U.S. News and World Report (more famous for its college and university rankings) that had listed Russia as the strongest military.[1] A lot of people were questioning or poking fun at the ranking because of how Russia was struggling with Ukraine. Also, a lot of people seem to confuse analysis with endorsement or validation. But really it’s important to note that a lot of stuff also has to do with how information is very sensitive and can influence a lot of people. If mainstream media can be believed, the U.S. is also struggling a lot with Iran right now, but you might not realize that if you mainly used Trump’s Truth social posts as your only source of info.

[1]: https://web.archive.org/web/20220313151414/https://www.usnew...

reply
Russia could still trigger a mass extinction and end civilization as we know it.

The thing which has changed is the nuclear threat is almost just, losing interest? Yes any one of a handful of nations could launch a strike that would kill tens of millions and start a war that would kill billions but... why? A teenager could build in their garage that can take down a ship or a particular room in a building a thousand miles away so what's the point of vaporizing civilians? It is exclusively a weapon for genocide now and it seems like mutually assured destruction is an ending doctrine it's a weapon for a madman and there are just so many easier options to accomplish any goal.

reply
[dead]
reply
Once proper defenses for cheap and slow suicide drones is created (fast small unmanned interceptors with bullets instead of missiles) this temporary drone threat phase of war will be mostly over. The ability to build $1000 drones in everybody's garage was an obvious but unhandled threat, surely it will be though.

The funniest thing I've seen with the Ukraine war (if it's not AI) is an old prop plane with it's canopy removed and the dude in the rear seat shooting down a drone with his automatic rifle. We're going to get Top Gun: RC Mini Edition in the next armed conflict and it's going to seem like a video game.

It will then become just another threat, and one that is managed well enough to no longer be a david v. goliath kind of weapon.

reply