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by closetheloopdev3 hours ago |
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upvoteby possibilistic3 hours ago|
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2023: Google is doomed. They're not building AI. No wonder the "Attention" authors left. Google just sat on this. Their PMs are steering them into oblivion. OpenAI is winning while Google takes no risks. Innovator's dilemma. Google Search is doomed.

2024: Google is on fire. Sergey coming back helped. Gemini, Veo. They've caught up. OpenAI is doomed.

2025: Google is seriously winning now. Nano Banana!! Google was destined to be the true winner of AI.

2026 H1: Google is slow as hell. Where is Gemini? Google is not launching anything, meanwhile just look at everyone else. Anthropic! And open source. What the hell are they doing over there?

2026 H2: Everyone is leaving Google. Google is doomed. PMs are destroying the company. They don't take risks.

Meanwhile, Microsoft: "Copilot!"

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upvoteby christophilus3 hours ago|
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My predictions about everything ever, summarized perfectly. I need an “inverse me ETF”.
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upvoteby closetheloopdev3 hours ago|
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It seems Google has to play both offense and defense: competing against frontier labs' models while protecting search and ads. They also have to be mindful of not doing anything that could hurt their own search or ads. That seems harder than a frontier lab just doing offense on both models and search/ads.

Having said that, I think Google's moat is still strong with Cloud, Gmail, YouTube, Android, Chrome, etc.

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upvoteby ben_w2 hours ago|
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> Cloud, Gmail, YouTube, Android, Chrome

Cloud and gmail, I agree.

I don't think YouTube can survive if GenAI keeps going like this. Android, same, but on a different timescale and for different reasons. The Play Store (and all other app stores including Apple's) will also face problems from GenAI making apps (it already replaces my need to buy, but I'm weird and a software dev ("but I repeat myself")).

Not sure how big a moat Chrome really is? It's more like a sales funnel than a product itself, I think?

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upvoteby logicchains2 hours ago|
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>Meanwhile, Microsoft: "Copilot!"

The difference is nobody expects anything better from Microsoft. Teams didn't exactly set the bar high.

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