Interesting perspective. Things are definitely going to change and open weight will have a huge impact in the US as token costs are way to high now. Definite impacts to Anthropic/OpenAI but let's not forget Meta and Grok are out there too and same with Gemini.

Infrastructure costs - great points. Are we really going to have datacenters in space? If so, what will be overall cost structure with launch being the new cost factor but basically eliminating power and cooling. If it does work and takes off, what about all those expensive data centers on earth that were built and are being built. I do not see much discussion on this but probably because it's not a definite data centers in space will happen and by when. Musk has done unbelievable things but usually not on his original timelines but years further out.

I agree that the trend of token price should be going down but it should also consider the effect and gain per token so it varies among different models, mainly according to their capability and availability. There’s a long way to go before it meets the equilibrium state.

So I think we should not limit our field of view on software development but on realms where ai software has not penetrated yet. That’s the blue ocean for ai business. The forth industry revolution hasn’t begun yet. The new steam engine powered textile machine is on the stage of developing and experiment yet.

As a ML/LLM engineer in a ecommerce analytics SaaS company, I can't stress how useful LLMs are for me, and gladly - for a 5-man company our LLM expenses are 1.5k including coding agents. Great ROI.