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Closer to every 5-6 years these days and with ram prices going up it will be even longer. Especially with the low/mid range phones, which are most phones outside some developed countries, people will keep their phones as long as they can.
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Would depend on the income levels, but yeah, buying a new phone these days is entirely a non essential luxury. An iphone easily lasts 7 years so the moment money is tight, it's a very easy choice to not buy a new one.
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