It tells me that they have some kind of insider knowledge that the models have hit their limits and won't be getting much better, and it makes sense economically speaking to just bake the current models and use them for the next 5-10 years. Looks like we're near the top of the S curve.
replyA model you can run for practically no cost is a new proposition. It is the CPUification of AI. Sure there be supercomputers but you PC will be pretty super too.
replyCerebras already runs large models like Kimi 2.6 or GLM at like 30x speed. 100 times is next year, not six years.
replyYou can actually test it out on their website, just imagine 3 x faster and maybe 15% smarter.
Cerebras is literally the entire wafer, so it can't get bigger. So where is the jump from 30x to 100x coming from? Node improvements only yield like 10-20% gains these days...
replyCould we not just make bigger wafers, if the technology called for it?
replyThe investment in bigger machines at the fab might set you back billions. I don't know about the lithography technology either, how easy you can scale it to larger wafers?
replyThey have a next generation, I don't really know if it will be 3 x or what but I heard it was significantly better.
replyAlso there are other people innovating in hardware.
This.
replyLast month: agents spend 4 days on a hack, humans spend 3 weeks (so far) digging through the slop to figure out what happened
replyNext time, one of those number will be smaller, and the other will likely be bigger. How long before the analysis side gets too overwhelming to bother with? Probably less than 6 years.
Feels both unreal and dystopian. The speed at which these models are developing is very scary
replyIt will be cool but also violent and terrible.
replySo, like the present
replyWith more wealth concentrates at the top, yes.
replyLike some kind of pimple, which we can pop from all sides. And then we'll build something different. Something that works.
replyPresumably wealth would concentrate upwards even if AI was never made.
replyYes it's a function of the monetary system. Absurd amounts of debt only certain people can access.
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