Is it? There are a lot of edgy contrarians that are very overconfident - doesnt seem like a global consensus to me
replyThey are very overconfident, to the point of losing their own money. There was the case of the rootclaim debate where Peter Miller successfully convinced two paid unbiased experts that COVID was not created in a lab and won $100,000
replyhttps://www.astralcodexten.com/p/practically-a-book-review-r...
> Lineage A was first found in a Wuhan neighborhood right next to the wet market (closer to the wet market than 97% of Wuhan’s population). Again, it would be a bizarre coincidence if a lab leak pandemic was first detected at a wet market. But it would be an even more bizarre coincidence if a lab leak pandemic separated into two strains, and both were first detected at a wet market!
replyTo the extent that there can ever be a "smoking gun" in this debate, this is it for me. Given the mutation rate of covid, the lab leak requires that two lineages transferred to the same area a week apart by mere accident.
Yeah that and the "You would never choose <certain mutation> if you were designing COVID in a lab" were the kill-shots in the lab leak theory for me. I was pretty open-minded to the idea until a few hours into the debate. Bear in mind though, I don't think it actually matters too much anymore
reply