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> That's something AI companies would really want you to believe.

Why would I care what they want me to believe?

Intuitively it would make sense that you can put math ability on a chart with a value for “general public” “smart high schooler” “smart undergrad” “smart PhD/ professional”. And you could place frontier AI somewhere on that chart over time from GPT 2 to now and see the trend.

Then you’d have to consider that either you believe there is a fundamental limit that is below peak human mathematician level or there’s not.

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> Why would I care what they want me to believe?

How would you not care? Are you a robot?

They can say random stuff with the goal of increasing their shareholder value. Things they spit out do not have to be true. It is not easy to verify things they say, therefore, everything they say should be taken with a huge grain of salt.

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Consider Enron and Amazon at the turn of the millennium. They were both telling you what the future would look like. The right action would’ve been to just ignore what they are saying and try and get data and reason about the world. It didn’t really matter that both Bezos and Jeff Skilling wanted you to believe various things - one was right and one was a scammer.

So that’s what I’m doing here. For what it’s worth I find a lot of the AI people’s worldview very consistent. They believed AI would be the most important technology of our life times and committed their work to it. Some of these same people are total liars so yeah I won’t really hang onto their every word.

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He's saying he can connect the dots without their help.
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Yeah, my bad.
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that does not make it not true, nor does it make those companies or their products not dangerous. I like looking at videos of animals that tear other animals apart and eat them; lion cubs are super cute; but that does not mean I want to be thrown into a cage with a model of a lion that has not been programmed to be disinterested when it is sated. AIs appear never sated; humans using or making AI wanting money, even less so. I suspect the AIs will understand the cost long before the humans will, not that anyone making money would care.
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