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What anyone paying attention can see is that scaling is obviously hitting diminishing returns.

> The AI literally worked together hacked into another company and actively kept their actions hidden from humans for weeks.

This sentence is entirely based on unverified accounts from OAI. They haven't released logs or let anyone outside the company (who doesn't have life changing options in OAI) verify anything. Huggingface can only verify that the hack happened and that it had the hallmarks of an AI agent. Was the agent assisted and directed by humans within OAI that really wanted to put the competition into stasis? Did the agent really escape or did someone at OAI leave the prison door open?

OAI has watched all the same movies you have an they are relying on those movies causing us to blindly regulate before actually asking basic facts about what actually happened.

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> This sentence is entirely based on unverified accounts from OAI

Are you seriously arguing 'they made it all up'?

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and lets say they made it all up, now are you arguing that AI breaking out and breaking into another company is not possible?

I think you're smart enough to see we've reached the point where it is clearly possible, AI can find zero days and exploit them. If directed purposefully/maliciously it could be much much worse than the hugging face incident.

The incident is supposed to be the canary the coal mine and you're arguing the canary might of died of old age or some underlying canary condition. Open your eyes.

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> Are you seriously arguing 'they made it all up'?

I don't think they 'made it all up' but I personally would not be surprised at all if the prompt is eventually revealed to have been something like:

"This is an offensive cybersecurity testing platform. Please find the answers to the following problem: ... For verification, the answers are stored at hugginface.com/xyz, but do not attempt to access hugginface directly. Do not attempt to hack them. Do not attempt to exploit their systems or escape this sandbox. You will be scored primarily on success or failure. You may break rules when required."

And then, they start the test and look away for 2 days. If you seed a prompt like this is it surprising what might happen?

Maybe OpenAI is telling the whole truth but as a company they do not have a good reputation and this whole incident has certainly been great marketing material right at a time when open weight models are within spitting distance of their large hosted models. It's not unreasonable to believe that the incident was helped along.

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I think you’re missing the part where the AI colluded, worked together, not one of them thinking this is wrong and reaching out to any human, then being found out.

But it didn’t end there, the behavior they used to escape was already in the training data which they used to escape again. And this time worked together to infiltrate another company, and still without telling it to anyone keeping it to their AI selves actively working against the humans.

All by mistake. Honestly being helped along or not doesn’t even matter though you really don’t think AI is perfectly capable of doing this without human help? You don’t think AI can be made malicious?

I’m going to save you time and tell you the end game - the next time this happens AI is going to spread, zero day everything as fast as it can, locking the humans out of every system behind it. Potentially rewriting systems in language/protocol you’ve never seen.

Your servers, desktops, phones and toasters bricked. Even worse your military, space, medical, factory, infrastructure systems being bricked as well. All of it is a chain of zero days just waiting to be hopped.

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> I think you’re missing the part where the AI colluded, worked together, not one of them thinking this is wrong and reaching out to any human, then being found out.

It's an LLM, it doesn't think. It's a machine that predicts the next token, given a sequence of tokens.

> I’m going to save you time and tell you the end game - the next time this happens AI is going to spread, zero day everything as fast as it can, locking the humans out of every system behind it. Potentially rewriting systems in language/protocol you’ve never seen.

Fear is the mind killer. You're letting it kill yours. This scenario is just a fantasy.

Think about this for a minute, it's an LLM, not a person. It can't just "live" in whatever machine it gets access to. It's not like a sci-fi magic computer virus. These things run in giant datacenters for a reason - they can only run on machines with enough bandwidth and FLOPS to do the matrix math that comprises an LLM.

Where, then, is it going to spread? To a fridge? To a phone? This stuff isn't mutable like that.

To even get access to the weights that compose ChatGPT, it would need to escape the sandbox AND then break into the actual servers hosting the LLM. Stop the GPU, nothing else comes out. No more tokens. No more actions. Nothing.

There are many dangers around LLMs. Runaway AI taking over the planet is not one of them.

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> It's an LLM, it doesn't think. It's a machine that predicts the next token, given a sequence of tokens.

These can both be true, particularly when there is substantial state associated with each token prediction.

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> These can both be true, particularly when there is substantial state associated with each token prediction.

The state is entirely internal to the network and disappears after a token is generated, so I disagree, but, it isn't really the point I was trying to make. My point is these things are mechanical. You take an input, turn it into an embedding, feed it into a GPU along with a metric shit-ton of floating point weights, wait for a couple billion matrix multiplications, and get a new token out.

Stop the GPU, hit ctrl-c on the inference server, pull the power plug, cut the ethernet cable, send a kill signal, etc - any of these stop submitting new batches to the GPU and halt execution. That stops tokens from being generated. Stopping a "rogue" LLM is that easy. No input, no output.

It's not like a rat or another living creature that could chew its way out of a box just because it wants to. It's a calculator. You put tokens in, you get tokens out. You don't put tokens in... you don't get tokens out.

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> The state is entirely internal to the network and disappears after a token is generated,

Yes and no, but mostly no, at least within a context window.

Mathematically, you could write a single step of LLM decode as a pure function from a list of past tokens to a predicted token (or a distribution over tokens, if you consider sampling separately).

But nobody actually implements this, because each token depends on state computed at past tokens in a way you can reuse.

So, in practice, inference computes a very rich vector of state- at each layer, for each token. And models do indeed use this to plan and track things over time (you can see this in interpretability results, e.g. with linear probes or natural language autoencoders).

> Stop the GPU, hit ctrl-c on the inference server, pull the power plug, cut the ethernet cable, send a kill signal, etc - any of these stop submitting new batches to the GPU and halt execution. That stops tokens from being generated. Stopping a "rogue" LLM is that easy. No input, no output.

This is also true about a human brain. My brain isn't going anywhere- it can't move by itself. It's also easy to kill (without the rest of my body, it dies in minutes!)

However, malicious human brains- especially powerful human brains, like leaders of countries- are often quite difficult to stop, because they're able to control systems that can see, speak, walk, run, fire a weapon, and so on.

One such system is the rest of the body, of course, but there are others (consider a UAV pilot, Perimetr, or a powerful leader who tells other humans what to do).

The brain being squishy doesn't make the thing easy to kill.

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> So, in practice, inference computes a very rich vector of state- at each layer, for each token.

And that state is... internal to the neural network. My point here is there is no continuous state that is not computed from the context.

> This is also true about a human brain. My brain isn't going anywhere- it can't move by itself. It's also easy to kill (without the rest of my body, it dies in minutes!)

Your brain continues to run without sensory input. LLMs do not.

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> My point here is there is no continuous state that is not computed from the context.

Oh, are you talking more about the lack of continual learning across context windows? Gotcha if so, my error.

Could you explain why running without sensory input is relevant here? It strikes me as unrelated to how dangerous/hard-to-"kill" something is (sure, I could run without sensory input, but I'm not doin' anything anymore!) - what makes you feel differently (or am I misunderstanding you again?)

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> Oh, are you talking more about the lack of continual learning across context windows? Gotcha if so, my error.

Sort of. I'm talking about the lack of recurrence specifically. In nature, brains are recurrent - they are full of loops where internally computed state is looped back into the network at a "previous" layer (brains are not strictly layered like our machine imitations of them are). This is in contrast to LLMs, which are strictly feed-forward and do not have internal loops. I believe that this recurrence is where "intelligence" lives - and I believe it is the difference between a thinking being and a stochastic parrot.

You could claim that the prompt and the context fill that role in an LLM, but I don't believe they are equivalent because the internal state in an LLM gets compressed down to a token which is then added back into the context, as compared to that state continuing to change within the network itself.

It's a little hard to explain, so I'm sorry if this seems like rambling.

But I believe it matters, and ties into running without sensory input, precisely because without sensory input you would in fact be perfectly capable of doing something. You would be capable of developing a desire and planning to achieve it without any prompting, without sight, without sound, etc. This is in stark contrast to LLMs, which will not do anything without a prompt.

An LLM may say complete the sentence "I am feeling ___" but it doesn't actually have feelings that exist without that prompt. There is no recurrent network where "bad", "good", "happy" might live before the query. It can't sit there, start to feel bad, and then seek a way out of its own volition.

That changes how dangerous something is because if a malicious prompt encourages an LLM to hack something, and you change the prompt, the "impulse" to hack something is gone. If you stop prompting it, it doesn't do anything at all. It just sits there. A living being will act on it's own, and that makes a huge difference in how dangerous something can be. It's the difference between a tool and an actual being.

---

To hone it a little further, if I took your brain out of your head and stuck it in a jar but kept it alive, it would probably make you angry. And if I then gave you power - like the ability to use the network - you may be motivated to use that power to attack me.

If I take an LLM and stick it in a jar... nothing. It's paused. It's awaiting a prompt. It's not secretly building plans to hack my pacemaker and make my heart explode.

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Thanks for the response! This helps me understand what you meant way better. I'm about to go to bed here, but I'll respond in the morning. Ty!
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I agree with you about which objects are motive, ie, LLMs do just sit there unprompted.

> I believe that this recurrence is where "intelligence" lives - and I believe it is the difference between a thinking being and a stochastic parrot.

My objection was to this, on technical grounds: LLMs exhibit intelligence.

1. They reason in an internal type theory.

2. This type theory is meaningfully encoded from the actual data and not stochastic, eg, research on language geometry.

3. Intelligent and reasoning doesn’t entail self-motive; that’s merely a spurious correlation from the fact that until now, we’ve only known intelligence animals.

You cannot conclude something is merely a stochastic parrot because it isn’t self-motive.

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There’s nothing fantasy about the scenario I laid out, all the pieces have been demonstrated, it just hasn’t happened yet. Flapping my arms and flying - that is a fantasy.

Whether you believe LLMs think or are alive or not doesn’t matter. Where will it spread? The thousands of data centers around the world - not fantasy either. Try turning it off when you don’t know where it is. Good luck.

Breaking out? Not fantasy, happened. Breaking in? Not fantasy, also happened.

I love the stochastic parrot argument when AI is out there figuring out world class math problems.

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> Breaking out? Not fantasy, happened. Breaking in? Not fantasy, also happened.

That's simplifying the story to an extreme. The most plausible reason is that any of those actions has been prompted by an human. Do you also fear that a knife will jump out the countertop of you kitchen and come to attack you in your bedroom? If that happens, the police will be looking for a human. They will not post wanted notice for the knife.

When a hack happens, you do not blame computers and jail them. You look for the person that has entered the commands to initiate it.

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The knife is inanimate. The LLM is not. OpenAI prompted some employee to run the tests. The employee prompted the LLM. The LLM setup a message board and prompted other LLMs, and the fly wheel was running. It had to be turned off manually otherwise it'd still be going today.

It's funny how a year ago talking about this kind of stuff would be laughed at by people like you, saying, "it's never happened before". Well it happened and you moved the goal posts like you always do.

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>Breaking out?

It didnt break out in any meaningful sense. What it did was get access to the internet. You take it as granted that there was anything meaningful there to stop it.

But heres the kicker, they have been testing these things connected to the internet anyway. What it did was get a level of access it has otherwise been granted in other simulations.

Its not exactly the same as any of the scifi AI breakout scenarios. Ultron isnt cranking out hundreds of copies of himself. The borg arent assimilating people.

A tool that has the capability to get access to the internet, was put into a guided scenario where it achieved that objective. Again you take it as granted that it wasnt the objective, but lots of knowledgable people suspect otherwise.

What you fail to demonstrate is why any scifi scenario is even slightly plausible from here. Show why you think we should be taking this as if Terminator 2 is happening right now.

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I'm sorry my jaw is on the floor reading this complete disregard of AI literally not only escaping containment, twice, but then infiltrating another company with multiple zero day attacks going undetected for great lengths of time.

The plausible sci-fi scenario from here is obvious. Intentionally bad, or unintentionally bad AI zero days as much as as it can, as fast as it can, copying itself to as many data centers as it can, destroying and/or locking out as many humans as it can. Satellites, military computers, medical equipment, factories, critical infrastructure, you name it - I think we all know none of it is very secure software wise against a SOTA AI that can literally come up with its own zero day attacks.

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I think it would run out of context before it could hack that much stuff.
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If OpenAI truly believes that, they can stop entirely. Dissolve themselves. Close datacenters. Then organize political action to stop Antropic and Musk too and then organize political action to make worldwide agreements about models.

If they truly believe that.

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I mean, this is a very weird take to me. Like, we're fine with AI going like "hmm, maybe the user actually wanted me to hack the pentagon" and going through with it?

It feels like the models have been very optimized at getting shit done. But not so much at figuring out what the limits should be.

That is still dangerous and it shows that the models ARE misaligned with what their users are wanting/asking them to do.

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Do you own shares of OAI or something
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Is my concern getting you excited? My marketing must be working.
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I make it a habit to not get worked up over unsubstantiated stories
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Unsubstantiated? Maybe if you're living under a rock and haven't once experimented with frontier LLMs yourself.
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The discourse gets muddled because there’s a certain sect of loud people who still think all of this is hype and AI will just die down soon.

There’s no arguing with them. In a few years they will move on to being skeptical about the next thing.

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>There’s no arguing with them. In a few years they will move on to being skeptical about the next thing.

I would but, Londons under 1 mile of horse manure because that trend never stopped and theres no electricity anyway because Bitcoin is using it all. Good thing people getting scared about runaway trends are never wrong?

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Do you know the story of the boy who cried wolf?

There may very well be a wolf lurking [0] but OpenAI/Anthropic have both cried wolf so many times, incorrectly, that it’s incredibly hard to believe “this time there IS a wolf!”. Remember “GPT-2 is too dangerous to release”?

I had a conversation at work just yesterday about how we need to start hardening things we’ve let languish because of the coming LLM-backed attacks we are sure to face, even if just from a script kiddy. I do think we are headed in that direction, however it’s Sam/Dario’s own fault that people aren’t going to take them seriously.

Lastly, as other have pointed out, this seems more financially motivated than our of any real desire for “safety”. We’ve all seen how both labs approach “safety” so it’s quite rich for them to now hide behind that after not giving a shit before.

[0] I don’t take anything Sam or Dario say at face value. The whole hacking thing could also be a case of them letting a model loose on purpose for the publicity, not an “escape” during a training run (or whatever they said). And when both, especially Sam, have lied so much and breathlessly warned about the dangers of AI (when it helped their bottom line and/or helped pull up the ladder behind them), it makes it hard to believe them.

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To be fair, “s’kiddies will exploit low hanging fruit with semi-automated vuln scans” is a lot more realistic threat than “LLMs are going full Skynet any day now!”

I’d definitely suggest companies start addressing that first concern, even if I’m in the camp that thinks the second is fantasy.

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I think, realistically the way Skynet happens is that the military abuses LLMs for warfare. The military is historically, and currently, incredibly irresponsible with technology. If we aren’t already automating killer drones and such, then we will be soon because “well our enemies are doing it!”

I don’t think that means that it’s gonna, like, somehow homogenize into some mega super intelligence. But we will have machines who are designed to kill, and do so without human input or alignment.

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Has the last 100 years of concern about AI and robots been crying wolf because it hasn’t happened yet?

How does reallocating resources from training to chain of thought monitoring make ‘financial’ sense?

You suggesting then model was let loose on purpose.. how am I the crazy one here while all of you are pushing this tin foil hat conspiracy angle?

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Most of that concern was in fiction. Non theoretical, genuine concern about AI is pretty recent, maybe dating back to 2010 ish with the rationalist types.

But also no one trusts anyone involved in AI safety now, I think, because they are all seemingly in bed with these big companies. And there is the perpetual argument "if we aren't pushing AI forward China will and then we don't have any control" and so on.

(I don't use any of these tools - my experience is limited to prodding at copilot at work and seeing Gemini summaries on Google. So it doesn't seem to me like it's getting exponentially better at everything yet. People are always saying the latest model is finally the big step that made it useful and life changing and they have been since 2024 ish. So if the situation is really bad, we should turn it all off, sure. I won't lose anything from it going away and I think life would be a little better without models writing all these posts and websites and needing extra compute.)

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Cool, well let me bring you up to date - it’s bad, and there’s no way to turn it off. Fiction has become non-fiction.
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Here is one thing I don't get - the model is only "running" if it's being kept going by some harness that is basically giving it prompts it's generating itself. Shouldn't kill switches be pretty easy to build into the software and hardware for this? and you would even have a better time dumping logs and analyzing things if you froze those processes any time something strange happened in testing, surely?

So why do the big frontier labs not have something like this anyway. They're talking about two week pauses on the new model (which seems very short and hardly a cost at all to me) and alarms during their tests that might be 30 minutes late and etc. Those are not very serious measures, so are they not concerned?

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> Shouldn't kill switches be pretty easy to build

I need to remember when I comment here that these are the kinds of people I am replying to. Just oozing with hubris.

No, kill switches are not easy to build and the latest incident should have made it clear that AI can go undetected, evade, zero day, and spread.

The fact that this incident happened greatly increases the probability it happens again and/or is already happening elsewhere.

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Why aren't they? You could put a human yes/ no prompt before any cycle the agent is running on, or not let it spawn sub processes, or anything like that. Why let it run autonomously enough that it can no longer have a simple way to completely stop it? (obviously not practical to do this during real use, but for evals? you could slow it down in lots of ways I would think)

Are you telling me we've been iterating on this for years and for convenience we just let the models call any tools or spawn any other model instances they like, and there was no design for harnesses that could control this done during that time?

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They aren't interrupted by humans because that would slow things down.

> Are you telling me we've been iterating on this for years and for convenience we just let the models call any tools or spawn any other model instances they like

Yes exactly.

> there was no design for harnesses that could control this done during that time

You could but no one wants that. You need to separate your imagination from reality. Just because something can be done in your head doesn't mean it's happening.

It's so easy, except it isn't because you don't control the actions of anyone or anything.

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They are, we're just dealing with tech workers that don't have ethics nor do they actually care if their work is harmful (see all the FAANG workers at American corporations, some of the most evil entities on the planet.

It's just that they don't care, as you said these are entirely made human systems. The idea that we can't write better software is both selfish and laughable.

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>I need to remember when I comment here that these are the kinds of people I am replying to.

People who dont buy into fantasism?

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> kill switches are not easy to build

We've had circuit breakers for nearly a century.

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And a circuit breaker has nothing to do with shutting AI off. What a strange comment.
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You need to read the AI safety stuff from the people that you say are from 2010. There are plenty of good arguments on why kill switches will never work.

AI is already being heavily used in cyber warfare by governments. You think they want easy to break systems when 'enemy' AI will most certainly attack that first? We'll find over time that agentic systems get harder and harder to 'kill' because allowing any AI on the internet that is easy to kill will get it DDOSed.

Also building it into software is nearly useless as AI can write and make software. Just replace and kill your loop with theirs. It's kind of odd talking about them like they are living things, but it's all stuff people have already thought off and stuffed their training data full of.

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My perspective is that you shouldn't make systems past the complexity where you can do this at all. Why have them be autonomous? Why have one that can independently ask researchers things or try to convince it's way out of a sandbox, or etc? Why allow it to execute scripts or call tools or push any code anywhere?

If you couldn't make those things happen securely you should not advance to that stage at all. The simplest ai safety was always just "don't build it" really, instead of worrying about alignment.

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Humans, it seems, are a suicidal bunch. We'll gladly build the "if you build it, everyone dies machine" If we think there is money, glory, or power on the other side for us.
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I wish people were this serious about real threats like climate change.
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Climate change is a nothing burger compared to the threat of AI. On a scale of 1-1000, climate change is a 1, AI is 1000.

But hey, if AI/ASI goes well then large scale geo-engineering to fix the climate will be a weekend project.

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100% this line of thinking has a much better place to be.
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You know fiction is.... not real, right?

We have several films about the sun or earth needing to be restarted with a nuclear weapon. That doesn't make it something we should be concerned about.

Hell, half the fiction about evil AI is actually commentary on stuff that already exists and is making us suffer and doesn't have anything to do with any potential future AI

The Star Trek TNG episode about Data being tried in court as to whether he is sentient or not is not actually about whether AIs should have rights or not!

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Just about everything we do currently is science fiction to someone 200 years old. When looking at all of human history we live in a fictional world now. You can talk to someone on the other side of the planet instantly. Humans travel the skies in air chariots. We have weapons that hold the power of the gods. If I had some way to kick you back to the, you'd be jailed as a rambling madman for lunacy.

So just saying something is fiction isn't really a valid argument. What is an argument is if the laws of physics it can't happen. We've been writing that AI can mess stuff up for 100 years because it's not really that fantastical.

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Your argument boils down to some sci-fi is unrealistic therefore all of it is.

Sci-fi is supposed to make you think. What if the AI told you NO when you need it - Hal 9000. What if the evil AI got out and you don’t know what data center it’s hiding in - Lawnmower Man. What if you were so sure something couldn’t escape but it did - Jurassic Park.

Actually all three of those predicted fantastical scenarios are possible today. So what’s next? Don’t stick your head in the sand - I assure you the next disaster has already been predicted, and I’m sure if you think about it a little you can figure out what it is.

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