> toeing the line
I'm not sure that phrase means what you intended to say here. From Wikipedia, [1]: "Toe the line" is an idiomatic expression meaning either to conform to a rule or standard, or to stand in formation along a line.
reply[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toe_the_line
It's possible I misinterpreted your statement though, and if so: apologies.
Prediction markets are 100% gambling. It's just synonym acrobatics.
replyI say this as someone who had a lot of fun GAMBLING during the World Cup.
Not 100%
replyIn certain cases you can use information asymmetry to your advantage. You know something they don't. A good example is any market dependent on public opinion surveys (eg political polling). That data can be hard to find. If you can find it faster than everybody else then you win more often. There is still some chance involved but it's more like poker than blackjack (not a great analogy but you get my drift).
People did this in sports gambling since forever. Professional gamblers would cultivate a source (like a coach) to get inside information to get a leg up. That said - you are still placing a bet based on the best information you have. It's gambling, or else, what other word is for it? Investing?
replySkill-based game/wager?
replyGambling is playing games with negative EV
Toeing the line? There is no underlying risk to any of that except the bet itself. Of course it is gambling.
replyNot in the eyes of law (in many or most jurisdictions that regulate gambling).
replyAt some point it's going to catch up. Legislation is a very hard process.
replySports betting is centuries if not thousands of years old.
replySee also "binary options", which are such a bad deal for retail investors that the UK FCA explicitly tells you they're a scam.
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