The debate about ROI isn't about whether everyone is going to throw their hands up and stop using AI tooling - the debate is about where that value is going to be captured. It's pretty clear that using some degree AI assistance for programming is on the whole faster and better than writing code by hand for the majority of applications, and it's clear that the degree to which it's better than writing code by hand is increasing quickly.

I'm sure someone is going to reply to and say "actually it's not clear and the tech debt is about to explode everything real soon now" or something to that effect, but it's hard for me to explain this theoretically when it is so obvious in practice in my day to day.