* https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/975017/, https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6ZnznCaTcbGYsCmqu/, https://spiralism.website if you want to test how strong your defenses are against this particular meme
I have no idea if other people who work in tech are better than average or not, because I don't feel confident in being able to check their work. That being said, I do think that there's a general trend of people in tech tending to be a bit overconfident in how well they will do at some new task they haven't encountered before, so when someone tells me that they can easily tell whether text is AI generated, it's hard for me to trust it any more than I trust someone who makes a similarly strong claim about something that they can use AI successfully for when it's not something that I can easily measure (e.g. learning a new language without getting feedback from people who are fluent from real-world usage).
All that being said, I do think the set of people who care is larger than just those in tech, although it's probably still a relatively small group overall. From conversations with people in other domains, there are contingents in non-tech communities who tend to have a large representation of negative views towards AI (artists, writers, musicians, other jobs where people are skeptical of human creativity being replaced by AI), and often times the people who feel negatively in those groups will be even more adamantly opposed to interacting with any AI content than people in tech. To be clear, I'm not at all trying to generalize and say "all artists hate AI" or anything like that, since there's obviously a wide variety of viewpoints within any sizable community, but I've definitely seen many people who say they will refuse to play any game that's suspected of using AI for generating art assets, and even some who don't differentiate between using AI for generating assets versus code (either because they aren't knowledgeable about how different aspects of game development work, or they genuinely don't care because they view AI as a categorical evil).
And I’ll concede on both ends that there are probably times I suspect content is AI generated when it isn’t, and times I suspect it isn’t generated, but it was.
AI tells seem inevitable. You have millions of people communicating with one effective “personality” that has tendencies to write in certain ways. If its content is published verbatim, then it will be easier to tell whether some content is AI generated just based on its similarity (sharing certain linguistic features) to other content being posted.
It’ll never be black and white though.
I think they may just be to trusting and/or naive. People in tech right now are hyper aware of this and are actively looking while people outside of that bubble barely give it a second thought.
Going further, I'm curious about whether people are mostly good at the case where they suspect most or all of the content from given "author" has the same amount of AI usage/prompting in generating it rather than the adversarial case where someone might usually use AI extensively and then try to slip by purely human written text (or vice-versa). I don't have a good sense of whether this is a threat model that actually matters, since maybe the heuristic of weeding out sources that are mostly AI-generated is enough for people who prefer to avoid that type of content, but I do think that changes the definition of what it means to be "good at recognizing AI" in a meaningful way. It seems plausible that disagreements about how easy it is to recognize AI content might be coming from two people assuming a different framing of the question that results in a different answer without realizing that's what they've done.
Several existing studies I’ve seen have done things like prompt the LLM to produce a poem in a certain poets style, then ask people to spot the fake in a collection of poems, which they aren’t great at. This is, I would argue, an extremely different context than what most of us are encountering AI text in, and the people sending me text aren’t prompting it stylistically like that.
On your second question, I definitely feel like I can tell the first time a coworker sends me AI text masquerading as their own thoughts, even if they had previously been opposed to such a thing. So it could be that familiarity is more important than my prior on whether they’d use AI? But interesting to think about either way