We surely cant be this naive after the recent history of:
reply- China weaponizing the world's dependence on rare earth
- The US weaponizing the world's dependence on SWIFT
- Russia weaponizing Europe's dependence on natural gas
- Iran weaponizing the the world's dependence of oil supply through strait of Hormuz
This is true until you add a layer of geopolitics to your analysis.
replySupply chain advantages make the country that produces most of the stuff progressively better at doing everything.
replyOnly if you have the people to do it. China has some of the worst birth rate in the world. In ~20 years that manufacturing capacity either goes to robots or goes away. Then what?
replyOne of the (many) areas in which China is doing great is industrial robotics. Not the fancy dancing dogs, but robots that replace workers in factories.
replyhow is that different from the rest of the world?
replyThose thing are not static! Changing them can be a political decision. It was a political decision in China to become excellent at manufacturing.
replyThat depends on if everybody gets along and is willing to trade
replyThis attitude, if followed without qualifications, is dangerously naive and shortsighted, as the last few years of geopolitical events have shown.
replyYes, and no. Yes because you are vulnerable to supply chain disruption by illwilled countries. But illwilled countries that disrupt supply chains greatly incentivise others to diversify supply away from them.
replyChina could have the monopoly of rare earth production and refinery for all of eternity. But because of their reaction towards all the us allies when the us increased tariffs, I don't expect them to be relevant enough to disrupt markets with rare earths sanctions in 10-20 years.
> But illwilled countries that disrupt supply chains greatly incentivise others to diversify supply away from them.
reply... Except when they can't in any meaningful span of time.
Families should always eat at the restaurants that produce the most excellent cuisine. /s
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