This analogy breaks down because computers aren't going away unlike horse drawn carriages or sailing vessels. Computers aren't being replaced by something. It's that fewer people will understand how they work while the efficiency and reach of computers extends into areas of life previously unreachable due to the scale of having humans build it or the refusal of humans.

I could wax philosophical about what that leads to but enough people already have.

If my horse is ‘a useful piece of software’, what are the cars and motorboats that AI coding is going to give me?