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Data centers use no more than 1.5% of energy globally[1], and a long LLM query uses only a little more than 5 minutes of general laptop use ~3x the energy of running an LED light for 5 minutes.

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/how-much-energy-do-data-centers-a...

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So you’re saying we could significantly cut energy use globally by limiting data center build outs?

1.5% is a //huge// amount. If it was a “drop” in your bucket, it would only hold 67 more of those drops.

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No, I'm not saying that and I don't think 1.5% is particularly large. Moreover many of these projects are built out with on site 0 carbon generation so they're in some ways a net benefit.
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The largest projects, like Box Elder County Utah and Pecos County Texas, are using fossil fuels.

In fact, I'm unaware of any new AI data center also being built with 0 carbon generation. Do you have a source?

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Wow, even with that being electricity rather than energy, that's orders of magnitude more than I would have guessed. That's a tremendous amount of electricity.
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1.5% of electricity. That's a significant difference. Only about 1/7th of all our energy usage is electricity

1.5% of global energy use would be a shocking amount. Aviation is at about 3%. 1.5% of global electricity is about 0.2% of global energy use, a much more manageable figure

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1.5% of electricity, not energy

that would be 0.3% of global energy use

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Ah yes, "just" 485 TWh, equal to all electricity consumption of Germany. Drop in the bucket
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The US isn't expanding fossil fuel extraction, its quite the opposite. They're funding the modernization of existing plants in order to take older plants offline:

June 2026: New coal-fired plants in Anchorage, Alaska, and Mt. Storm, West Virginia, would total 2.85 GW. They would be the first new U.S. coal plants to come online since 2013.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/doe-announces-850m-moderniz...

Meanwhile in China (from 2023):

China permitted more coal power plants last year than any time in the last seven years, according to a new report released this week. It's the equivalent of about two new coal power plants per week. The report by energy data organizations Global Energy Monitor and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air finds the country quadrupled the amount of new coal power approvals in 2022 compared to 2021.

"Everybody else is moving away from coal and China seems to be stepping on the gas," she says. "We saw that China has six times as much plants starting construction as the rest of the world combined."

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/02/1160441919/china-is-building-...

Meanwhile in India (2026):

India plans to increase its coal production by nearly 100m tonnes to 1.15bn tonnes in the 2025-26 fiscal year to help meet the country’s rising demand for electricity to support economic growth and contend with heatwaves, which have become more severe and more frequent because of the climate crisis.

The planned increases come despite signs that the world is beginning to turn its back on coal in favour of renewable electricity, Global Energy Monitor said.

The US could switch every ICE vehicle to EV's and install solar and wind turbines in every inch of the country and it won't combat what's going on in China, India and other developing countries that rely on coal for cheap energy.

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You are looking at the acceleration but without looking at the initial state.

A more fair metric would be Co2 emissions/person and I’m getting

USA 14.3 t, China 8.8 t, EU 5.5 t, India 2.2 t

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> A more fair metric would be Co2 emissions/person and I’m getting

We don't care about that notion of "fair": the cold hart truth is that China has 1.4 billon people.

Another way to put it: China has one billion more people than there are in the US.

Or another way to put it: 4.1x more people.

Which means China is emitting nearly 3x more Co2 than the US.

Our only hope is that China is using coal and fossil fuels only has a mean to sustain its insane growth while they transition to solar and nuclear (which they also do, at an amazing speed).

Hillbillies and redneck with their gigantic pick-up trucks in the US are really the least of worries.

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You can't compare capacity without comparing capacity factors too.
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You said "modernization of existing plants" but quoted "New coal-fired plants."

China's 2025 five year plan targets peak coal before 2030 and might have already reached it in 2026. https://energyandcleanair.org/china-energy-and-emissions-tre...

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This is the very definition of the Tragedy of the Commons. Without everyone committing to common limits, it is folly for anyone to.

And FWIW, I don't buy the "but the countries that bred like rabbits for the past few decades are owed their due reserved quota". Having a massive population isn't something you need to be rewarded for, not to mention that the math doesn't even make sense. For China and India to get their "per quota" backlog, we're basically so firmly in self destruction territory that it makes no sense for anyone else to even bother.

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This has been aided by the fact that energy has been heavily politicized. Fossil fuels are 'murican and renewables are woke. It's horrifying.
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Does your hypothesis predict that Texas would be one of the most renewable-energy-heavy states in the U.S.?
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That’s just economics. That doesn’t excuse what the current admin has done in terms of prioritization.
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That "just" is really doing a lot of heavy lifting.

Economics is what makes this country work. If converting to renewables makes more money, that's what will happen and the people making the money will find a way to justify it politically.

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Economics only make the country work when societal costs are not externalised by those that cause them. Which they have been, always, by fossil fuel companies.
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Which makes it all the more remarkable given the century+ headstart fossil fuels had in entrenching itself in our political process and power structures.

Texas is doing something right, that’s for sure. But it’s not so clear what that thing is that the topic can be considered settled without debate.

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It’s not a hypothesis. It’s an observation of reality. The current administration canceled massive renewable projects and has incentivized reopening coal plants, subsidized fossil fuels, and opened government land to oil drilling.
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China is doing it the right way : use fossils but pouring that money into renewables. Use economic forces to cut the dependency . Everything else is just pipe dream building never happened utopian communism 2.0 .
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How many degrees hotter will it get as a consequence? How many windmills will it take to make the world a degree colder?

Serious question.

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The almighty buck wins at the end of the day. But how long the day is, that's political.
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