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by brookst15 hours ago |
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upvoteby unsupp0rted12 hours ago|
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The memory companies report that they're sold out through 2027... so it might be a while
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upvoteby kstenerud12 hours ago|
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That's only if the AI companies continue their build outs.

How many people actually use fable over opus? How far are we up the diminishing returns curve, and will their customers even care?

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upvoteby tshaddox11 hours ago|
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The stock market crash caused by AI companies halting their planned build outs may in practice cause RAM to remain unaffordable.
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upvoteby andruby9 hours ago|
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How does a stock market crash increase RAM prices (when RAM demand goes down)?

Or would it affect people's purchasing power. I guess to some extent it does for people with significant investments in the stock market, but that's not a huge percentage of the people wanting to buy RAM or devices with RAM

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upvoteby josephcooney7 hours ago|
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The second and third and fourth-order exposure to AI spending is maybe bigger than you think. The blast radius if it pops could be quite large. Patrick Boyle had an interesting video discussing this recently https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTiYaWFP59Q
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upvoteby agentcoops12 hours ago|
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I don’t think the effects on the hardware market of open weight models triumphing has been reflected upon enough. It’s not clear that it will be less impactful if every enterprise decides to build for predominantly on-premise inference. In fact, before the question is ultimately decided, we’re probably heading towards a few years where hobbyists, enterprises and ‘hyper scalers’ are all competing for certain parts in common. Ram booked through 2027 sounds about right.
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upvoteby Foobar856811 hours ago|
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Companies are avoid risks, and at this stage, sometimes, I feel that all cloud providers are just buying RAM that they would have bought anyway. Now it's ensure that no company will be willing to pay x digits just for cards. One of my clients is stuck in "we are doing things on premise but we are too cheap to spend a few 100k in cards but we don't want to go on clouds.
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upvoteby znpy9 hours ago|
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Last thing i heard was that large companies are starting to seriously spend on ai infrastructure (think nvidia clusters rather than tokens from openai or anthropic) to fine-tune and run custom models.

This might become the driver for memory and chips demand in the near future.

But i don’t know, of course, we’ll i guess.

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upvoteby rxyz11 hours ago|
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Fable would have a much bigger userbase if Anthropic didn’t remove a zero data retention option because muh safeguards
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upvoteby hedora1 hours ago|
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Or if it didn’t constantly kick people off fable. It won’t talk to me about gardening or computing.

It will happily walk me through all the legal and illegal ways to systematically kill rodents.

At least it is on-brand for something used by militaries that want to target civilians, I guess.

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upvoteby nomel8 hours ago|
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Or, they're price fixing, as they have many times before, and are currently being sued for [2].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_industry_price_fixing

[2] https://moginlawllp.com/dram-antitrust-suit-ai-memory-supply...

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upvoteby giantrobot11 hours ago|
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I for one can't wait. Current prices are absolutely insane.

However a problem exists with scalper bots. They're going to fight tooth and nail to keep prices artificially high even when supply increases. Same with the hyperscalers blowing "free money" at eating supply as a strategic position against smaller competitors.

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upvoteby EgregiousCube8 hours ago|
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Scalper bots need customers to sell to; their business model falls apart in the face of sufficient supply.
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upvoteby giantrobot8 hours ago|
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That sufficient supply is maybe on the distant horizon. In the meantime everyone is being fleeced because the scalpers have the only supply available. Even if there's a supply glut tomorrow the scalpers have the infrastructure in place to buy out retail channels keeping prices high.
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