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I know it's at least a little irrational, but I am indescribably angry with the pricing trajectory of personal computing. I'm not all that young and for pretty much all my life the computers you as a random person could buy have consistently become massively more performant and massively cheaper over time. Even when the exponential performance increases started to taper off, every few years you could buy or build a new computer that was either cheaper or faster than the one you already had.

That trend of the last several decades has been completely destroyed in the last year or so. Sure you can buy a new computer that might be slightly better than one a few years old, but it will be significantly more expensive to the point where an upgrade is almost certainly not worth it unless money is no object. Even replacing a computer from the pre-AI era would be virtually impossible at anywhere near what it cost you to buy it new unless it was verging on truly ancient by computer standards. Computers have always been a counterpoint to inflation everywhere else, but now that seems to be not only no longer true, but computer costs are inflating significantly worse than other goods.

I find myself increasingly in favor of the movement against data centers. Not because I think data centers are bad on their own, but because of the hording of computing resources they represent and the impact that has on people trying to buy any sort of computing device for their personal use. The PC I built 2 years ago is basically irreplaceable at anywhere near the price I paid for it. That's a truly unacceptable state of affairs in personal computing.

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I don't think it's an accident that the market is on a trajectory toward personal computer (and particularly storage) rental being the only economically viable game. There are significant players who will profit directly. Indirectly it helps companies for whom end users owning general purpose computers and storage threaten their business models.

The industry has little incentive to fix this problem and as the market shrinks so does the incentive.

We lived thru the PC revolution. It looks over now to me.

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I feel like we are basically reliving the COVID era supply chain crunch, that it's basically inevitable that in 18-36 months more capacity will come online and prices will crash back to earth.

Whether OEMs like Apple pass these savings along to consumers is tbd though.

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Memory orders for the whole 2027 were already reserved. There is little indication that in 2028 situation will be any better unless something drastic happens like AI crash.

And then the opposite can happen like an unknown drone with 100 kg warhead striking memory production facility.

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Yeah… “unknown”. As if we don’t know any countries seeking to end democracy in Taiwan…
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“It costs a lot to buy a new computer better than the one I have” is another way of saying “computers aren’t going obsolete as fast” which sounds like a great thing.
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It also costs more to buy the same computer you already have, which is not a great thing.
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Isn’t this just inflation? We are in a highly inflationary environment. Everything is going up in nominal terms.
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I think their point is that computers used to defy inflation. Across the decades, computers were getting cheaper in an absolute sense (i.e. not factoring in inflation) and astonishingly cheaper in terms of dollars per unit of performance.

Even when the cost of the cheapest computers bottomed out, it likely had more to do with lower prices not making sense. At a certain point, the cost of things that encapsulate the computer and I/O (like the enclosure and screen) end up overwhelming the cost of the actual compute.

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DOES 400% SOUND NOMINAL TO YOU?
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no, inflation is the cost of goods rising because money is worth less.

This is capitalism, as demand increases, so does price, regardless of the cogs.

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Inflation is a few percent a year roughly. Prices for hardware have skyrocketed. Ram has jumped anywhere from 2-4x in cost. NVMe drives are still going for 2-3x what they cost about 2 years ago. Just go look at one of the amazon price trackers to see how bad it is.

TSMC, plus flash and memory manufacturers with their own facilities, have dramatically cut production of almost anything that isn't in demand for AI, plus Macs were just about the only way to get more than 16GB of 'VRAM' without spending multiple thousands of dollars, so Mac Minis and Studios with more than about 24GB of ram have been under months-long backorders, which is unprecedented. Tim Apple made is name in supply chain logistics. Even he can't logistic his way out of this. Making things worse, the RAM that Macs use is really fast stuff, nearly the speed of high end desktop GPUs.

Supply for anything that isn't exactly what NVIDIA, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, and MS want has pretty much evaporated. And even that stuff has skyrocketed in cost because, essentially, the race has turned into who can hoard the most of TSMC's and NVIDIA's production capacity in a particular year.

The pathetic thing is that it isn't even actual purchases in some cases. In some cases, it's OpenAI or Anthropic merely "promising" they will buy X% of a memory manufacturer's capacity.

I can't wait for all of this to come crashing down.For all this hardware that is useless for anything else because of its density and power consumption - to absolutely crater in price and become e-waste.

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lmfao ... inflation. are you trolling sir?
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Same thing for me! Got it with the education discount when it came out in 2024 and, although I've been pretty disappointed with macOS, it's crazy to see that the price increased by $300 in less than 2 years, with no sign of the price increases slowing down.

What will happen once people are priced out of buying computers? I find this worrying.

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I don't really understand this dooming. All market forecasters, memory bulk purchasers and the memory producers themselves have stated multiple times, unequivocally that the shortage will get worse in 2027 and then as new fabs come online the shortage will taper off as 2028 progresses.

We've been through.. 4? 5? memory boom-bust-boom cycles already. Nothing is pointing to this one being any different, aside it probably becoming the mother of all busts since AI isn't adding much productivity and as businesses realize this, they'll stop paying top dollar for access meaning AI vendors cancel all their reserved fab capacity.

The fabs already exist at that point so it's less of a loss for the memory fabs to crank out memory chips and have the RAM OEMs sell them at bargain bin prices. No pseudo-cartel pricing possible either with CMXT becoming a major player. $50 for 32GB-64GB of DDR5 in 2029 here we come babyy

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>I don't really understand this dooming.

no one remembers the last time things got better rather than worse. shitcoin-driven scarcity seamlessly transitioned into COVID-driven scarcity and now into hyperscaler-driven scarcity. the chipmakers' cabal decided to meet increased demand with four digit margins rather than expanding production.

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Some of us do. In 2011 Thailand floods that destroyed major HDD manufacturing capacity and drives were really expensive.

It's Deja vu for NVMe and SSD drives this time as prices are way up there.

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I had to buy a replacement HDD recently. They’re also stupid expensive.
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I don't remember any previous price increase this significant or sustained. Relevant to this thread, I don't ever remember major computer companies like Apple having to significantly jack up their prices because hardware costs had gone up so significantly and stayed there.
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Aside: I used to love reading qz. Anyone remember when it was a chat/imessage style mobile app? The news was super short and quirky.

Then they sold out and most recently literally sold out to this software company from my neck of the woods. Every single article now feels like it's written by an LLM optimized to write like a crypto/AI bro.

I used to use it daily and now not at all.

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> AI isn't adding much productivity

Would love to know where this comes from. I am not sure about that. Could you point to data/anecdata?

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https://fortune.com/2026/08/22/executives-ai-productivity-la...

There's been a few studies. Most find productivity gain from 'AI' to be negligible.

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Seems hard to believe, I mean I'm not an AI absolutist but as a programmer it allows me to automate simple things like writing small patches or config changes in a matter of minutes where before I would have invested hours, so hard to believe that it won't at least bump productivity up by 20-60 % overall, it's also tremendously better at finding relevant content and curating it than me so that's another time saver unrelated to programming but relevant for any type of knowledge work. Friends in research and medecine and law also tell me that AI has drastically accelerated their rate of processing and ingesting any type of information and helped them to automate aspects of their jobs. So not sure but negligible isn't the word I would use here.
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> Seems hard to believe […]

This goes back before AI, with computers not being found to be improving productivity numbers: Solow's paradox.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity_paradox

* https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-solow-productivity-pa...

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> it allows me to automate simple things like writing small patches or config changes in a matter of minutes where before I would have invested hours

One of the problems here is that things like this only count as "increased productivity" in the economic sense if it results in more income at the end of the funnel. Are you actually making more product faster in all your new-found free time?

Very few orgs I've worked in have actually been limited by the speed of programmers writing code. Usually it's communication overhead and management processes eating up most of the bandwidth - and those tend to expand to absorb any additional bandwidth.

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Yup. And in my experience, AI has made the communication and decision making overhead significantly worse thanks to 100x longer docs, code that noone understands and enormous pressure by executives to magically produce software that just works.
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That's just because most people are bad at communication to start with.

Look at all the shit github README before llm. Most repos didn't bother because it was effort. those few that did, were because of autistic focus. Of those, very few were "great" user documentation.

now llms are here, the effort barrier is gone, and now we're inundated with shit README that provide no value to users nor respect their time.

Once you start applying SKILL.md that revolve around fixing HOW to communicate value to users in a way that respects their time, you'll see this story change in noticeable places.

I doubt it will change everywhere because it also requires that you give a shit about doing this in the first place, so those people Ed Zitron talks about... business idiots won't care, because they're ultimately nihlist.

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> One of the problems here is that things like this only count as "increased productivity" in the economic sense if it results in more income at the end of the funnel. Are you actually making more product faster in all your new-found free time?

This strikes me as a problem with how we define productivity in this context. If I can do my job in 1 hour, when it took me 8 before, am I not more productive in a rate-based sense? Sure, I might only work 5 hours in a week instead of 40, so my net production is the same, but my rate of productivity was certainly much higher.

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Wealth created is still the same, and that's what an economist means by "productive" - you produced X amount of wealth (usually measured in dollar amounts).

It's like "work" meaning one thing to a normal person, but something very specific and counterintuitive in Newtonian physics (if you carry a fifty-pound weight in a circle and stop at your starting point, you've done no work).

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I mean I can deliver the same software in one month that I delivered in maybe 3 months before and for many things I don't need a dedicated frontend developer, designer or writer anymore. So for me it's the case!
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Even if it was true… does anyone really believe that companies will stop using AI?
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Ask any solo founder and they will have a very different story

https://www.economist.com/business/2026/07/27/america-has-be...

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> What will happen once people are priced out of buying computers?

If it persists for years people will have time to spin up more fabs and meet demand

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> What will happen once people are priced out of buying computers? I find this worrying.

What happens is that people start buying Chinese mini PCs, some of those even have spyware preinstalled along with another malware that is Windows 11

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This is a great route. Just yank or wipe the windows disk, install Linux, and it’s way more secure and performant than any preload windows would be. It probably runs games better too.
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Chinese mini PCs are also affected: they're shipping with less RAM, at higher prices, or both.
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> What will happen once people are priced out of buying computers? I find this worrying.

I’m sure some kind capitalist will be happy to rent them a thin client linked to a computer in the cloud.

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Apple is already leasing phones/computers..........
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My take: this was done to pull consumers back into the cycle of upgrading to every new release. iPhones already do so much more than most people need. With the RAM price hikes, even though there was an influx of sales (according to a store rep) initially, I think Apple was expected a significant decline; people just choosing to stick with their current device to avoid paying the premium.

Leasing not only allows Apple to keep "selling" people new devices, it will also mostly like accelerate the second-hand sales and resource recycling arms of the business. Consumers will be more willing to upgrade sooner and stay in perpetual payments vs having to buy out the device at lease end - and Apple gets back newer devices where the recycled tech is arguably more valuable.

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Yeah the era of the personal computer is over.

Companies will prioritize components for cloud computing and lease us thin clients...

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What do you think chromebooks are?
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I’m sure some kind capitalist will be happy to rent them a thin client linked to a computer in the cloud.

Maybe we'll see a return to the late 1990's, when companies would give you a free computer as long as you allowed it to constantly display an ad banner on the top of the screen.

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I think this was only promised once or twice and any company relying on it quickly went bust.
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There were at least seven companies offering this. I personally knew two people who had them from two different companies, and I think they were also available at Best Buy and Circuit City.

But yes, they all went out of business during when the dot-com bubble burst.

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Capitalism will lead to:

- Lots of options competing on quality, price, user experience, user needs

- Every marketplace innovation that we talk about on this platform

So somebody might offer exactly that and if it's a good option, people will use it. If it's not, they'll use an alternative.

Government regulation will lead to:

- Giant entrenched companies that are difficult to disrupt thanks to insider connections

- Lack of competition, price increases, terrible customer service and pretty much everything that "anti-capitalists" today complain about in regards to capitalism.

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So, government regulation will lead to all bad things we see today in capitalism? But capitalism won't. This is not very sound logic.
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Hey now, let’s not burst his utopic bubble.
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Theory holds so far.

Everything government involvement touches gets more expensive. See healthcare, college tuition, student loan debt as some easy examples.

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Two of those are the same thing and both are much cheaper in countries other than the US where the government is much more involved
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That’s odd because spend on all of those things per capita is consistently lower with better outcomes where they’re socialized.
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> See healthcare

Medicare is cheaper that US private insurance:

* https://www.kff.org/medicare/how-much-more-than-medicare-do-...

Also:

> A single-payer universal health care system could cover every American, save more than 100,000 lives a year, and still cost $1 trillion less than the system it would replace, according to a new preprint study led by researchers at the Yale School of Public Health.

* https://ysph.yale.edu/news-article/universal-health-coverage...

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*gestures at prices*
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In Soviet Russia, prices so low no inventory left!
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In Soviet Russia, supply demands YOU!
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Quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus entered the chat a while ago.
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gestures at supply and demand
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Yeah. It's not working to lower prices.
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Right now, demand exceeds supply. As new fabs come online, supply will rise. Eventually, either through greater efficiency of the models and inference systems or through the collapse of AI companies, the demand will drop.
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Pure hn libertarian moment
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Truth doesn't change with the day.
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for all values of spherical cows in a vacuum
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Capitalism under the control of a few billionaires who can influence the entire market with FUD leads to: current market conditions.
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> Government regulation will lead to: > > - Giant entrenched companies that are difficult to disrupt thanks to insider connections

Oh, you mean like Apple, Google, and Microsoft?

> - Lack of competition, price increases, terrible customer service and pretty much everything that "anti-capitalists" today complain about in regards to capitalism.

Have you looked around? This is already happening.

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Yes, absolutely.

And it leads to comments like the parent blaming "capitalism"

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Capitalism doesn't exist without government regulation. Who's going to enforce the contracts? Who's going to break up the giant entrenched companies rent-squeezing every cent out of their natural monopolies, and then using their illicit gains to crush any would-be competitors as they ooze into other markets?

Literally everything listed for 'government regulation will lead to' can and has happened in unchecked capitalism. Insider connections rule everything right now in this current regime of chest-beating 'capitalists.'

Capitalism and socialism aren't real things outside of freshman year econ textbooks.

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Current government already doesn't enforce contracts. Ex, prime video ads. Further there's no point in having contract terms if they can be changed unilaterally at any time.
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Contracts are worth exactly as much as you're lawyered up and willing to get them enforced. There is absolutely still a functioning courts system to enforce contracts.

The one notable exception is if you're a group of workers and you negotiate a contract with your employer: the state can and will interfere to void it if it prevents the workers from being properly exploited.

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Maybe they will have to use/repair/upgrade the ones they already own?
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Problem with that is so few of them are repairable these days. Laptops just kind of fall apart over time.
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Thinkpad and Framework are notable brands for easily replaced components. They should run forever if you just replace moving parts like fans and keyboards.

Macs, as nice as the hardware is, are hostile to repair.

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I got an Apple refurbished m4 Mac mini with 32gb ram and 512gb ssd in September last year for $1300 Canadian.

The m6 with same specs are $2000.

Also m4 Mac mini seem to now be in stock on their refurbished store.

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I was not in need of a mac mini then and I’m not in need now, but damn I hope my laptop will last a long time because FML the best price/performance minipc of the last few years got wrecked and the entire market is in shambles
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My personal laptop is a 2018 ThinkPad Carbon X1 Gen 6. It's eight years old now. Still running Linux pretty well, but I really need to figure out what to do for a replacement sooner than later...
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The Framework laptop looks interesting
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My 13" Framework is about four years old and is still plugging along fine.

I may need to replace some parts at some point, but this far it's not been necessary.

I'd love to have the 16", which didn't exist when I bought the 13", but thanks to Altman, hardware prices are insane these days. :/

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I got a 32gb M4 macbook air with the lower CPU core count, right before things got stupid. Can't even buy that skew now.
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The $750 Amazon special M4 Air was also insanely good.
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I wish I picked one up last fall when the stores were trying to clear them out. Now you can’t even buy them in person.
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Wait, their website only shows preorders for M6 or M5 Pro, and they have nothing about the M4. So do they currently have zero Mac minis in stock?
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Yes. I looked just two days ago to purchase a M4 Mac mini (I had no idea they would refresh it), and estimated delivery times were '5-6 weeks', with the highest RAM configs unavailable. Other retailers still have some in stock though.
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I feel that way about my GPU for normal gaming use. Now I’m afraid of it dying on me.
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I don't really care about gaming, but there's a PC I got for free a while back with a 2060ti that overheats if I don't peg the fans at 100% and keep the case open. Would be nice if that holds on.
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I’m currently hoping that my Intel Arc B580 doesn’t die on me cause even a 5060 Ti 16 GB has reached like 700 EUR price over here. I don’t think the prices will get better anytime soon.

Same with my M1 Air for being on the move, even notebooks would be more expensive than they’re worth.

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I’m milking my M1 Air, too. It’s still going strong, and I just can’t justify replacing it. Would love 64GB or more memory, though.
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I got an essentially free upgrade from an M1 air to an M4 air and let me tell you...there is zero difference in day to day usage. You've got another 5+ years of headroom at least.
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Yep, for cpu I’m sure that’s true. It isn’t often that I wish the M1 was faster. But I need more memory. 16 GB was fine five years ago, but it’s getting cramped for me now.
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Consider underclocking/undervolt it a little, especially if you aren’t using the GPU to its full potential.

It will last longer and hopefully the GPU prices will recover in a few years.

I hope

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I'm still running a 32GB V100 ...
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Wasn't that lowkey state of the art at one point? I'm running RTX 2070 lol
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I'm kind of lost on what to do with it. I have better workstation PCs, and I couldn't find a good way to turn it into a media center - it would be a great living room PC - but couldn't find a BT remote friendly solution last time I checked. Anyone has a solution for this ? I don't want to be using mouse/keyboard every time I sit on the couch - something that would let me stream something like jellyfin fullscreen with a remote ?
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Maybe try a Steam Controller? I've used the OG one. I think the device itself registers as a keyboard. Its trackpad controls the mouse cursor and the triggers act as the various mouse clicks.

If you are running Steam in the background, one of the buttons triggers an HUD keyboard, where the left trackpad types keys on the left side of the keyboard and the right trackpad for the right side of the keyboard. My guess is the new controller works the same way.

Also, some media center software, such as Kodi, have gamepad support. So a gamepad will feel completely natural to control it without having to resort to using the mouse and HUD keyboard.

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There are various "air mouse" variants that properly work with MacOS as well. I have one with some media/navigation keys on the front, and a tiny keyboard on the back - kodi I can navigate just with the navigation keys, and if I want to do a bit more (but not get out the proper keyboard) I just flip it around, and can do that as well.
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> I'm kind of lost on what to do with it.

Personal assistant (e.g. openclaw) in the mac ecosystem. You need external models to power it ofc, but cool to have all the Apple integration and local network in your assistant. The claw can be addressed in multiple ways and can command your local hardware if you so wish.

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Sell it. Sounds like you have too many computers already and didn't need it.
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I recommend a combined keyboard+trackpad device. Compact, fully featured.
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You can buy a remote sized kb/mouse for 10$.
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I almost bought one for my kids back then and now seriously regret that I didn't.

My son is using my old ~2011 Mac mini with Linux Mint on it. Slow but works.

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Downvotes are probably because it's obvious they are talking about the pricing, nothing to do with quality.
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