Haha I have not heard of the Shaggy Dog trope! (Or it’s only very vaguely familiar)

I agree with you that the ending is a bit rushed, which I think can come off as forced. I’d like to blame the word count for the competition I submitted this into… :D

I’d been thinking about the idea for this story for a couple of weeks before I actually started writing it, from which I had quite a visceral idea for the ending. So I guess in some ways I could have tried to weave it in more, but I also did kind of want it to be a shocker / surprise!

> then the sudden <spoiler> out of nowhere is almost a diablo ex machina

Matt Levine says that prediction markets don't just predict future events. They also create strong incentives to make them happen (or not happen).

If you already knew that then the end was, I won't say predictable (hehe) - I was a bit surprised - but also not out of left field.