There have been maybe three such events in the 21st century (glacier or landslides producing more than a magnitude 5 quake), and none of them have happened in an area like the Himalayas. The other two were in Alaska on Mt Steller in 2005 and the Lamplugh Glacier in 2016, neither of which produced massive downstream floods.
replyIt usually takes entire icebergs calving off to produce such seismic events and intense monsoons to create such flooding.
> There have been maybe three such events in the 21st century
replyIt seems that past history (especially recent) will not be a good predictor of future events.
Spoiler alert: that’s the whole point of a black swan event.
replyA black swan event is an event that is unpredictable because it is so rare.
replyWhile I'd wait for confirmation about the cause of this specific incident, the point you seem to be ignoring is that, due to climate change, events that would have been considered "black swans" historically will become more and more common, to the point that they are expected to occur.
I think that’s a misreading of the entire book. A black swan event is a rare, high-impact outlier that is nearly impossible to predict under normal circumstances, but is rationalized as having been inevitable in hindsight.
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