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The conclusion of the bitter lesson would be that a large language model trained on chess commentary as well as being trained on millions of chess games would outperform stockfish which is only trained on millions of chess games. There’s no evidence at this point that this is true.
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> a large language model trained on chess commentary as well as being trained on millions of chess games would outperform stockfish which is only trained on millions of chess games

Not really, if anything it's closer to the opposite. The Bitter Lesson essay literally has this as an example:

> These researchers wanted methods based on human input to win and were disappointed when they did not.[1]

and

> Enormous initial efforts went into avoiding search by taking advantage of human knowledge, or of the special features of the game, but all those efforts proved irrelevant, or worse, once search was applied effectively at scale[1]

The actual bitter lesson is this:

> breakthrough progress eventually arrives by an opposing approach based on scaling computation by search and learning. The eventual success is tinged with bitterness, and often incompletely digested, because it is success over a favored, human-centric approach.[1]

Applying to the "LLMs-for-chess" example the bitter lesson approach would be to put many, many more games into the LLM.

Does this work? People have trained fairly small LLMs that are competitive Stockfish at the ELO 1500-2000 level, eg: https://github.com/kinggongzilla/chess-bot-3000

This seems to be evidence that large LLMs probably don't have as much chess training data as Stockfish does.

[1] http://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html

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It's the exact opposite.

The bitter lesson is that simply scaling training on more games—including self-play—trumps any hand-crafted human input, whether that's fine-tuning on human commentary or clever engineering tricks.

Current models are just high-dimensional interpolation engines. The denser the data sampling, the more accurate the interpolation gets. Given a choice between denser sampling and anything else, denser sampling always wins. That is the bitter lesson.

Computer chess is the canonical example of this.

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But the harness still matters.

In the case of stockfish, the harness is a tree search around the neural network evaluations.

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Denser sampling only seems useful if the problem domain is in some way smooth - interpolatable. If you run it on a fractal problem domain you just learn more special cases. Chess is fractal.
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I think you have it backwards.

The common mistake is to think “maybe if we use a blend of raw data and hand-crafted heuristics, we’ll get the best of both worlds!” But the bitter lesson says no, beyond a certain point it’s better just to use the data.

Thinking that an LLM might be able to improve on purely “big data” machine learning seems to me to be the same incorrect idea. Its “intelligence” is no more useful than human intelligence. The LLM is based on a massive data corpus, sure, but the amount of data specifically about chess in there pales in comparison to just playing billions of games of chess.

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Also, training it on chess books is literally training it on human knowledge, and not the actual game, which is exactly what the bitter lesson says not to do.
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> I think you have it backwards.

> maybe if we use a blend of raw data and hand-crafted heuristics

I don't follow. They're suggesting giving raw chess data to the LLM, no heuristics involved.

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Maybe a future frontier LLM could approach the problem by first building its own stockfish, then applying the subsequent results
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Or maybe an LLM could just tool call stockfish and doesn’t need to have more than a basic understanding of chess. The bitter lesson seems extraordinarily wasteful on the compute side.
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Maybe a future LLM after that could approach the problem by first simulating a human brain, then learning from the ‘human’ gameplay.

Just kidding of course

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Chess is a brute force search problem. Humans are not good at chess, even a small computer can beat Magnus Carlsen.

It would be better to compare models at how well they can write the code for chess engines, otherwise it's just saying that Fable is not a good CPU emulator, which is obvious.

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The Bitter Lesson says that the only things that scale are search and learning.

Stockfish is the best chess search engine we've got, and you can learn some good heuristics for chess search policy that will make time-limited chess search a lot more powerful. That's perfectly in line with the Bitter Lesson.

In contrast, LLMs playing chess are relying solely on learned behavior. The inference harnesses surrounding them aren't designed to do chess things, they're designed to do autoregressive token decoding, which isn't a search process. Reasoning traces can resemble a search process, but they're far less efficient - the LLM would have to work out each legal move, test each one, calculate a score, and simulate minimax over all of that. Assuming the LLM is smart enough to even do all that.

A hand-crafted approach can absolutely beat data if your approach unlocks more search and/or learning than the general solution.

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> A hand-crafted approach can absolutely beat data if your approach unlocks more search and/or learning than the general solution.

Now let's look at the bitter lesson again. It says that general methods that leverage computation are ultimately the most effective, and by a large margin.

That's different from just saying to leverage computation (which is how I would interpret "unlocks more search/learning"). If the lesson is "more computation wins, when sufficiently channeled" you're basically looking at a truism. Of course more computation beats less when it's used right. The bitter lesson is about abandoning specialization in order to get more computation, and while there's a couple ways where that helps with chess, there's a lot more ways where it's counterproductive. It looks like it's more true for Go than it is for chess, and that it's not universally true. It probably correlates with the state space.

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