I still think that a major problem is that biological processes are not “fast” as coding, but they are verifiable. If during post processing we are able to give enough harness to test and verify this kind of environment (maybe via simulation and real data) we will for sure achieve incredible performance also in this domain.
Having worked with Fable 5, the feeling I get is that it's fairly capable of accounting for these tradeoffs and will depend fast more time on planning and testing.
At the end of the day though, with horizons like that the best use of an AI is to get it to help you with those things, not so much delegate fully.
Yeah, that's called an API. Again.
The actual hard problem that this hand waves is making (and funding the making of) hardware to reliably do the things you need it to do.
LLMs, even in control of lab equipment, address neither of those.
You can do LLM->3D Printed models now. The drone can fly in and pick them up and bring them to the location you want. They can assemble structures. All automated, all LLM driven.
Things are changing. What was true, no longer is.
However I think this area has so much decoupled from industry and solid research institutions that they might not notice at all (beyond their use of AI-generated slop to augment the slop they already produce)...
The same way it did in the previous versions: brute force.
I don't believe that LLMs have any particular intelligence we don't, but there's an endless list of problems we either don't have bodies to throw at, or the bodies we can throw at it, don't have such a huge large context to crunch problems.
What LLMs will always intrinsically fail at is showing us genuine new intuitions. The technology is about predicting the next plausible token/sentence.
They will not revolutionize human knowledge, but they can definitely widen it a lot.
I am generally quite enthusiastic about all this, but my biggest fear is that we will not recognize the extreme need for more scientists at a time when there is so much more science to be done. The rate of scientific understanding must keep pace with the amount of science being output, both for verification and further discovery. It's a pipelining issue, and I predict a stall in the bits that require the (currently rare) people who know what they're doing.