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James was born on the British Isles, near Boulogne-sur-Mer, in 2009 CE.

James's table is mostly oat and barley bread, pork and dairy, and cabbage and peas, with apples in season, and coffee and sugar as well. He is literate.

Odd for a gen-z person in Britain. I doubt he’d eat a lot of cabbage, and I have no idea when the “season” for apples is as they are always in the supermarket and there aren’t any orchards near where I live.

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> James died in 2027 as he jumped to his death from his room in a five-story hotel —his belly full of barley juice.
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Even in Massachusetts most people I know tend to know the seasons of many fruits and vegetables, and I definitely mostly eat apples in the fall when they're much better.

When I lived in Europe people were even more aware of the seasons of fruits and vegetables.

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apple season is fall, if you're wondering.

him eating apples when in season seemed to me at first like an anachronism, but actually, i do that. years ago i got fed up with apples that were whatever, so i decided to only have apples when i could find mcintosh (my favorite apple), and eat loads of them.

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I draw a man in China in 1819, and it said he "died of the war in Oman" without any explanation of how that could have happened. What a load of crap
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That’s basically what I’m thinking.

Not only is this pointless, it’s outright mis information. Who gains anything from having an llm create an imaginary person ?

I guess for pure entertainment, but this looks like it’s a historical website

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Welcome to the future of widespread information, where the uneducated masses don't understand what context, or the definition of words for that matter, even is.
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Youtube is full of this, history slop. Some techbro hyperfixated on this and LLMs gives it life before he's bored and moved on to the next thing to hyperfixate on.

It's techbro ejaculate. 10 minutes of euphoria for slop to come out in the end to spread to unsuspecting victims.

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The first part likely is just an artifact of an unwritten common assumption. That is, it's probably 96% of women, who lived to adulthood, who were ever married.
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Maybe, but I doubt it. The vast majority of the sources, including the two listed for this claim, are listed as "attributed", meaning "A model (Opus or Fable) claims that this is what the cited source says. In my spot checks, I've found these claims to be accurate; still, since it's just a model claiming that author x says y, there's a nonzero chance that it's a hallucination."[1]

I couldn't track down the first source, but the second source goes over something completely different. Maybe Claude accurately remembered the first source when it was stolen during the training process, but forgive me if I'm skeptical. Feel free to track it down yourself and let me know. Otherwise, I will assume it is an LLM hallucination.

(Also, given my background knowledge of the Tang dynasty, I would be surprised if the average marriage age was as high as 18!)

[1]https://anyhumanever.com/sources

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“ Claude accurately remembered the first source when it was stolen during the training process”

I see…

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I don't follow what your point is here. If you're not aware, Anthropic pirated many books via libgen and similar tools for use during the training process[1]. Maybe you are not aware of this, or do not consider it theft?

[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/us-judge-approves-anthropics-1...

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Key distinction though: Anthropic can be said to have "stolen" or pirated those books when they downloaded them illegally, but not when they trained Claude, because that same lawsuit found that training is fair use.

Anthropomorphizing makes for poor analogies, but it's kinda the same way your acquisition of background knowledge of the Tang dynasty from whatever source material you used is not considered stealing or pirating either.

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Fair enough; what I meant was more like 'Perhaps Claude accurately recalled the stolen documents it was provided during training'
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Did the original owners of the books no longer have them in their possession afterwards?

Theft involves removing from the source, Copyright violation is distributing copies without a legal right to do so. Training is fair use.

The judge found that it constituted copyright violation. Purchasing the books would cover their responsibilities with regards to training. The claim that they are destroying books to hold copyright is incorrect. The judge cited precedent that said instances of not destroying the originals were also fair use, his claim about destruction was to say even if this precedent were not considered fair use, the destruction that was already occurring (because it is easier to scan loose pages), invalidated one of the arguments against it.

The ruling was on training took the form

If A is ok then B is ok, but even if A were not ok, B might still be ok.

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Excellent. I will thus take a copy of the latest Disney movie and train myself on it while claiming fair use as a defence to the accusation of copyright infringement.
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You can do that legally as long as you do not confuse people that what you create might be an actual Disney product, or that you try to represent it as actually created by Disney.

Both of those are protected by law. Learning from a Disney movie and creating your own thing is not, and should not be, disallowed.

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This is the true reason for watermarking by LLMs. So they don't get mad LLM disease by digesting their own product.
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Even if this wasn't vibe coded it would be impossible to fact check billions of possible lives. I think thought provoking toys like this are a great use of AI, assuming no one takes them seriously.
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I am not sure why it is thought-provoking for a website to lie to you? There is plenty of real history and demography to read about.
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That is exactly what is thought provoking. Usually we only learn glimpses of history, not a full distribution about it.

For example my draw died as a newborn (allegedly 50% died before 5), which made me think how many humans never really got to experience life.

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you can't fact check real individual lives but you can draw up a probabilistic representation

that is if your probabilities are actually correct, that the anthropological or archaeological or sociological field for that specific region and demographic is robust (and there is good primary evidence for supporting the claims), and you're not some vibe-coded AI tool that spits out a convincing lie constructed on not even educated guesses, casting shadows on the wall of the Platonic cave where the people who trust slop uncritically are chained to their ignorance for perpetuity

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> I drew a woman born in 715 CE in the Yangtze Basin. It claims that 96% of women were married, the average age of marriage was 18, and 44% of women died before age 15. Clearly these facts can't all be true simultaneously.

Yeah, I got: You have drawn a girl, born in the Yangtze Basin in 1295 CE.

Typical age at marriage: 18 Ever married (of adults): 96% Children per woman: 6.5

Life expectancy at birth: 28 yrs Died before age 5: 39% Died before age 15: 44%

Very similar to your "random" draw, and the facts are suspect. There was a link to the source, but it's behind a paywall.

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I am genuinely puzzled as to why this kind of vibe-coded site are so popular on HN.

I consider the crowd here to be much smarter than I am, which is why I enjoyed the links that were shared and the discussions that followed.

The website is pretty, but the statistics and stories are the main point. Yet we are being fed hallucinated false claims, and somehow, that doesn't seem to be a problem...

I don't understand why it gets so many upvotes. We know Claude can create websites like this brilliantly now. The novel and interesting part is the transformation of the data. But if that part is sloppy, what's the point?

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Until I read the comments here, I did not notice the stats were bad. I was just skimming the facts I thought were interesting, not looking for contradictions.

The site itself is a really cool concept! I just wish the information was accurate. Now that I know it's not, I feel cheated.

I suspect a lot of people don't read the comments.

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Can you offer any evidence that it is any less accurate than a page hand crafted by a human?

I thought it provided an interesting tool for people to put things into perspective.

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Well for one example, if you select a person born on the Italian peninsula in the 1400s and they die of bubonic plague, their year of death is not correlated to years when there were large bubonic plague outbreaks on the Italian peninsula.

This is not an error I would expect a human to make if they were interested enough in demography to make a website about it. For example, the wikipedia page on this topic[1] does a reasonable job of distinguishing that plagues did not occur every year and that they varied in lethality.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_plague_pandemic#Italian...

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And yet the bubonic plague did indeed exist and kill people between large outbreaks.
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This is such a weird nitpick, it's clear the website deals in averages and assumptions. It's meant to be an interesting window into possible lives intermixed with historical happenings at, or around, those times.

I get that some people just hate AI, but of all things, this is a pretty fun & educational use of it.

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I think our core disagreement is that I do not consider teaching falsehoods to be educational. My antipathy towards LLM outputs that haven't been fact-checked is mostly downstream of things like that.
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This website doesn't "teach" anything. It's a fun way to explore and get exposed to history. Kind of like Civilization 6 or something. Do you think CIV6 "teaches falsehoods" because you can build the Pyramids as the French?
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I haven't played Civilization. Generally I would not consider something educational if it contains mostly false information. Perhaps clearly demarcated parts of it with true information could be considered educational -- for example, looking at screenshots I don't see anything immediately objectionable in the civiliopedia "historical context" sections.

I think most players would understand that in-game choices will not reflect the choices people actually made historically. Having not played Civilization, I'm not sure whether I would consider it to be educational -- I think it would depend on whether playing the game provides insight into real historical events.

For example, I would consider a sufficiently detailed LARP of a historical event to be educational[1] -- the actual choices and outcomes do not match what happened historically, but they can teach participants a great deal about the motives and limitations of real historical actors.

This website, on the other hand, seems to consist of 90% AI hallucinations and 10% data that was actually extracted from a real source[2]. Since these types of data are thoroughly mixed together, I think this website is about as educational as just making up something to believe about the past.

[1] https://college.uchicago.edu/news/academic-stories/history-c...

[2] https://anyhumanever.com/sources

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I don't think a hand-crafted app necessarily estimates things more accurately, but a sensible pre-LLM developer would probably not list so many dubious citations to trick people into believing it's accurate.
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This is exactly the kind of reckless inaccuracy I've come to expect from AI.
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Worst part is that it's often not clear at the first glance was it something carefully crafted or steamrolled by LLM.
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Idk I find it almost painful how obvious it is to the point of borderline embarrassment.

It is like when MUI/bootstrap/tailwind came out and made it increasingly easier for no design chop folks to press a button and get a decent design going. It is like watching a kid in a candy shop when systems engineers can vibe up a webapp without having to touch html/css/js.

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I got a man in India 1000 years ago who died at 92. Impressive yet rather unlikely.
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The thing about stats is outliers exist. Whether those outliers themselves are interesting is another matter.
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Unlikely, but not implausible.
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There are plenty of problems with the site but that some stats like marriage do not count dead newborns as unwed instead of invalid for the stat is not really one of them.
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What age of death discounts someone as counting towards the marriage percentage? If a human made the website, there would be an answer to this question. That answer might not be published and might vary between datasets, but it would exist.

In this case there is no answer, because the percentage is just made up by the LLM. There is no methodology. Your answer is inappropriately anthropomorphizing the LLM by imputing a methodology onto its "data collection" process.

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No anthropomorphization was required, I just looked at one of the sources on that section of the page and saw the statistic did not involve the number of newborns and so figured myself those facts could indeed be simultaneously true.

How do I know the methods described in the source were correctly used here? I don't, but I also wouldn't know that based on whether or not a human wrote the webapp. I'd know that by checking the method applied on the backend matches that of the source. If it does, it doesn't matter if it was generated by using every 17th letter of the dictionary - it'd either align or not.

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Which source was that?
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In my case it was:

Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and modeling population processes. Blackwell Publishers.

In GP's case I believe they are correct the Hajnal source is not relevant to the Yangtze Basin but reading the first page should have made it clear the facts could be simultaneously true regardless where the percentages came from or if they were accurate.

Again, there are plenty of problems with the site. That it was clear these facts can't all be true simultaneously was just not one of them.

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This appears to be a general introductory demography textbook. I am surprised that you looked at it and it contains specific demographic tables about marriage rates at specific time periods? Perhaps I am misunderstanding what you mean by 'I looked at one of the sources and saw it did not involve newborn rates.'
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I think it might be a simple misunderstanding, but one can never be certain :).

I believe we agree we haven't seen a valid citation for "the source in which 'x' came from in 'x%'" for this stat on the site. I hope the two of us also agree this is not the point I was disagreeing with.

Where I'm currently lost is why a demography textbook, which was a different citation in the same section, must be unable to explain dead newborns need not be counted in such a statistic on the basis the textbook was not also the source of the specific percentages displayed? That'd be like saying a statistics textbook can't explain how the median can be less than the mean on the basis it wasn't also the source for the numbers displayed.

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"I drew a woman born in 715 CE in the Yangtze Basin. It claims that 96% of women were married, the average age of marriage was 18, and 44% of women died before age 15. Clearly these facts can't all be true simultaneously." Umm yeah they can be true. Dead people are not counted. The straightforward interpretation is 96% of women living to 18 years or greater marry at some point in life. However the app has bigger problems, namely it does not seem to select from the distribution correctly, pre 1500 lives seem to be vastly over represented.
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Yes, if a human told me this collection of facts I would assume they failed to properly explain their methodology. Given that the LLM is just making up numbers (see the "sources" page, where these are listed as "attributed",) there isn't really a methodology to explain in this case.
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