yeah but I think you may be underestimating the amount of capital available for compute. if AGI is possible through some 5 trillion of expenditure on computers, there will be money for it.

also, you are underestimating how short a 10 year time frame is. we are close to self driving, the first neural net image model was in 2013. 13 years is a blink of an eye

You bring up an interesting point. Isn't the reward itself subjective in many domains?