Then it’s an expert system.
Stephen Hawking wasn’t very good at folding clothes.
The ‘General’ part of the term ‘AGI’ seems like a trap to me, because there will always be new workflows to master. Can Astra one-shot level completion on some yet-to-be-released video game? If no, does that mean it’s not yet ‘Generally’ intelligent?
You won’t get pure ‘general’ intelligence until you find Einstein’s hidden variables and load the state of the entire universe into context.
Meanwhile, building a series of expert systems targeting specific valuable workflows is useful today and seems like it’ll continue to scale to cover huge swathes of economically valuable workflows.
I think that’s the more interesting thing to be measuring. The surface area of useful economic workflows that can be addressed with expert systems built with today’s tech.
Hitting some ‘Artificial Expert Intelligence’ coverage threshold on economically valuable workflows is what will matter for humans well before pure ‘general’ intelligence.
You only have weights (large immutable memory), or context (small mutable memory).
Humans have mutable long-term memory: I can learn a new skill, adapt an old skill to new information, or learn new knowledge today that I couldn't perform/didn't know yesterday. I don't have a training cutoff.
Context engineering is an attempt to paper over this limitation. You can get really far with context engineering and huge models, but you will never get to AGI because there are many tasks where humans' mutable long-term memory outperforms.
AI in math is ongoing. https://spectrum.ieee.org/ai-in-mathematics
I would be able to draw an accurate bicycle, but I'm an outlier on that. Most people could not draw one [1].
[1]: https://www.booooooom.com/2016/05/09/bicycles-built-based-on...
https://mymodernmet.com/gianluca-gimini-velocipedia-bicycles...
https://qz.com/681345/an-artists-3d-renderings-of-bicycles-d...
Checkmate, meatbags.
And the only reason LLMs can't write essays indistinguishable from human output is because they aren't RLHF'ed to write like humans.
Folding clothes isn't an LLM's job but if you were to insist, they could certainly do it, as any number of videos from robotics labs will attest. That particular future is already here but definitely not evenly-distributed.
That feels kinda like when I remember seeing Ocarina of Time for the first time, and thinking “oh my god, this looks just like real life…”.