>the most likely outcomes are not AGI

So long as it's non-neglible, it doesn't change the rational strategy. Uncertainty about whether ASI is achievable only reduces the magnitudes of the expected values of the payoffs, not their relative order. Adding a "global misery" scenario does not change the fact that "extinction OR king of the world OR global misery" is strictly superior to "extinction OR global misery".

Can you say more about what kind of model you see this as?