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There is no way Fermat could have fit that in the margin. Definitely vindicated.
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While pretty much everyone is certain Fermat was mistaken in believing he had a valid proof for the theorem, this is an expanded (compared to proof presentations) version of one proof - not the shortest presentation of the shortest valid proof.
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Given the likely length of the shortest possible proof, I feel like Fermat is 100% vindicated - the proof won’t fit in the margin.

My strong hunch is that it was a joke - he knew how difficult the problem was and claiming he had a solution was I think a huge motivating factor for many mathematicians trying to prove it. The greatest nerd snipe troll in history.

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Most likely an error. Some time after he wrote that margin note, he wrote a document proving a special case of the FLT (i.e. it's true for n satisfying some property). Why would he do that if he had already proved it?
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I think that point actually agrees with GP's take (joking/lying about having had a proof too big to fit in the margin): He would do that because if he thought the problem was extremely difficult but didn't actually have a proof when writing the note he would still want to go on and try to pick away at the problem.
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Maybe, we'd have to go back and ask him to be sure. I mostly just didn't want to leave an as of yet certainly unproven vindication about this hanging in a thread about finally having a formalized proof of the star topic :D
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I am really interested in whether AI will find a significantly easier (1920 level or so) proof of FLT.
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It seems unlikely to find 1920 level or so proof although it might be the case that a significantly easier/shorter proof exits via Vandiver conjecture + extra work or Effective Mordell conjecture but it also wouldn't surprise me if that would be even more complicated than the current proof of FLT.
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Maybe we need "de Moura complexity": the shortest Lean proof of a theorem.
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And he was right to call it marvelous.
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The next step, if Anthropic is interested, is definitely performing refactoring to cut down on the size of the proof. It’s clear to everyone including Anthropic that this proof isn’t as concise as it could have been. When it’s concise enough to be accepted into Mathlib is when victory truly is upon us.
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Maybe I'm misunderstanding something about how all this works, but can we have any confidence that 13 million lines of AI-generated Lean code are... correct?

How have we not merely substituted one verification problem for another?

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The point of Lean is that it can be mechanically verified by a proof checker.
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Not always, there can be bugs in lean. Recently some guy with claimed to disprove Collatz conjecture, only to turn out that there was a bug in lean. I actually have no idea, how anyone can be sure this 13 M lines is meaningful
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It’s common for formal proof efforts about software and hardware to involve thousands to tens of thousands of small lemmas.

13M lines does seem extreme and there is probably a lot of inefficiency given the way the proof was developed. Cutting it down is probably a long road, but is also a very well defined problem that AIs can probably just go do with enough time and budget now.

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especially compared to existing 129 pages proof by human
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A human can cite previous published results. I am sure a lot of this development was formalising the prerequisites.
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Wouldn’t a lot already be in leans mathlib?
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A published formalization is code. I would not think humans have any edge when it comes to citing previously published results.
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> I am sure a lot of this development was formalising the prerequisites

How can you be so sure its not result of inefficiency?

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Oh, I am quite sure there are inefficiencies! Just that they are not entirely inefficiencies.

I have used Fable for formalisation and it will, unless I catch it, reprove results it previously had proven, inline, in other results.

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Insert meme with 200 pages needed to prove 1+1=2 rigurously
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deleted
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>> Along the way, it wrote 13 million lines of Lean and proved 29,500 intermediate theorems.

> Pretty insane.

I don't think the count of "intermediate theorems" tells you anything. Here's something from an algebra textbook:

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Let G be a group, let H be a subgroup [of G], and let N be a normal subgroup [of G]. Then

H ∨ N = HN = { hn | h ∈ H, n ∈ N }.

---

This says that the subgroup closure of H and N, the smallest subgroup that contains them both, is identical with the set consisting of all products of an element of H (on the left) and an element of N (on the right).

Part of the proof:

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Suppose that x and y are elements of [the set of products hn]. Then x = h₁n₁ and y = h₂n₂, where hᵢ ∈ H and nᵢ ∈ N. Now h₂⁻¹n₁h₂ = n₃ ∈ N, as N is normal in G. So n₁h₂ = h₂n₃. In this case

    xy = (h₁n₁)(h₂n₂)
       = (h₁(n₁h₂)n₂)
       = (h₁(h₂n₃)n₂)
       = (h₁h₂)(n₃n₂),
which shows that xy has the correct form.

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This will translate directly into lean. If you do it this way, you will prove at least 10 of what would be described in lean as 'intermediate theorems':

    ∃ h₁ ∈ H, ∃ n₁ ∈ N, x = h₁ * n₁
    ∃ h₂ ∈ H, ∃ n₂ ∈ N, y = h₂ * n₂
    h₂⁻¹ * n₁ * h₂ ∈ N
    n₁ * h₂ = h₂ * n₃
    x * y = (h₁ * n₁) * (h₂ * n₂)
    (h₁ * n₁) * (h₂ * n₂) = (h₁ * (n₁ * h₂) * n₂)
    (h₁ * (n₁ * h₂) * n₂) = (h₁ * (h₂ * n₃) * n₂)
    (h₁ * (h₂ * n₃) * n₂) = (h₁ * h₂) * (n₃ * n₂)
    h₁ * h₂ ∈ H
    n₃ * n₂ ∈ N
But none of these would be called an "intermediate theorem" in a paper proof.
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