So, I'm not sure if it's a question of time at all: if a LLM text contains some piece of information beyond the information that went into the prompt, where does this "extra" information come from? [Note, I'm not thinking about facts which could trivially come from the training corpus, I'm thinking specifically as information in the sense of intended message from sender (author) to receiver (reader)]
[1] cf. this comment where I explain this analogy between LLMs and noise channel in communication theory: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49510244
All of the things you say are very true in the near term for short form writing - a page or two of Claudeslop will probably be much easier to swallow in a year or two than it is now. But I don’t see a path to fully AI-generated novels or long-form investigative journalism becoming mainstream in the next couple of years.