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The existence of even one irrational actor turns it into a prisoner's dilemma. The payoff matrix in a prisoner's dilemma is defined by the value expected by each specific player. If a single player falsely evaluates the expected value of building ASI as positive, every other player is forced to race for ASI even if they correctly evaluate it as negative.

Business as usual beats probable extinction, but probable extinction with a small chance of becoming a living god beats probable extinction with a small chance of becoming a slave.

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> is smart enough to know they need to stop because they'll kill everybody by continuing.

Yeah like when Tobacco companies learned that smoking... well, hmm, well the fossil fuel companies when they learned about climate change they...

Well, I'm sure this time executives will prioritize the common good.

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If we're following that logic I really don't want to see what the misaligned internal research models look like
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The, ahem, good thing here is that the ASI disaster scenario "everyone dies" includes AI executives.
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I think it doesn't matter. Most cancers don't stop growing when they're about to kill their hosts.

AI companies know they have to constantly push further, or they'll get outcompeted and lose their wealth, and nobody agrees on where the line is for "so dangerous it threatens humanity" (and when they try to be conservative about it, everybody screams "marketing stunt" and rushes to competitors).

If a single company decides "enough is enough" and stops chasing the state of the art, everybody goes to their competitors, they lose the money faucet, their employees go work for those competitors. The competitors also (usually) know they're building an existential risk machine, but they think they can push a little further, and they don't want to go out of business either.

This equilibrium can last for quite a while even if everybody involved thinks it's a threat to their lives.

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If you believe that the people who will profit from new, better, more hyped models are the same ones who will act against their own immediate and tangible self interest to try and avert what seems to them to be a far away removed possibility of total disaster, then I believe you are naive
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> 1) "Everybody knows" that if you build Skynet (misaligned ASI) everybody dies.

Lol nobody knows that. Everyone thinks they know that because for some reason this is the one field people still cite straight up fiction and say "this is a clear prediction of the future".

It's like describing the consequences of faster then light travel by referring to Star Trek.

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