The dot com boom was a bubble. Doesn't mean that the underlying web technology that powered it was bad or worthless. But the valuations definitely were. AI, in its current form, will be around for a long time, maybe even as ubiquitous as the internet is today, a few decades from now. But the situation right now can definitely be classified as a bubble.
replyIt’s a bubble. “AI” could be quite successful at this point, and the economics still don’t work out.
replyParts of it can be a bubble while other parts are not. The need for datacenters can be real while the valuation of model providers can be a fantasy.
replyIf the need is driven by a bubble economy, when the bubble pops the demand disappears too. This can even lead to a separate bubble popping (see: the dotcom and telecom bubbles).
replyYes, datacentres can be reused for other purposes but dark fibre didn't save the telecom bubble and the utility of train tracks didn't save the railway bubble.
The economics work out just fine. Their actual target business model is replace every knowledge worker. Their thought process is "look at all these people making 150k+, we can do their jobs for 10% of that, think how much money that would be if we had all of it"
replySure, the next step is complete regression to feudalism, but they aren't thinking that far ahead, they just want to take every job in existence that isn't physically turning a proverbial wrench.
It’s wild to me that anyone can have that thought and yet not think about what happens to everyone whose job you took. Especially in a country with citizens known for owning guns.
replyEspecially after seeing what the “learn to code” movement has brought people into, I can’t imagine those people will just roll over and peacefully enter homeless encampments..
I’m old enough to remember when people said computers would do all jobs 30 years ago
reply>citizens known for owning guns.
replyThey're largely the ones voting for this.
This is a country that voted for Trump twice soooo... it's anybodies guess.
replythe moment AI is capable enough to replace every knowledge worker and all knowledge workers are fired and/or dead the AI companies will just hike up the price for access to their bots until every company is paying at least as much if not more than what they were on human workers.
replyWhat even is the economy after they have killed all the workers and it's just bots clicking on each others ads?
replyThen it's on to centralization of the "human" components of the workforce into company towns, robot armies and competition for natural resources that will be processed from raw.
replyOnce the economics work out, the economy as a whole doesn't, therefore the economics DOESN'T WORK OUT.
replyI think you're making an assumption that the owners of this capital aren't: "That the economy has to work out for everyone."
replyIt doesn't work out for the owners of the capital. Their wealth is entirely based on their claims on future production that is consumed by people with money.
replyBut they haven't replaced every knowledge worker. The unemployment rate remains unaffected by all the AI progress. At some point the bill comes due, and if most of those jobs are still around, then what?
replywell, according to finance bros, shovelling cash into a furnace to power a boiler to steam some eggs is considered a wild success. Economics is for normies.
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