upvote
So the gigantic incumbents with retail distribution being inefficient makes sense to me. What about the long tail of D2C brands that live on Meta ads? AFAIK, they live and die by their ROAS. I would have to believe that these companies just don't really exist to buy that Meta ads are a "con".
reply
the roi is better at smaller corps that pay attention, but you would still be surprised.

and where it is more efficient its where there is better attribution models aka direct sales.

note: there are certain kinds of products that are 100% 'click driven sales'. they zero brand awareness, they want to sell you that 'fleece hoodie' on the spot. those guys have their funnel math down solid.

but startups and other companies ... not the same.

well funded startups burn $ thinking it's productive - and hugely: buying fake customers, or, spending $2 to get $1 in revenue to either pad the books, show investors, make themselves feel good or 'strategic'. FYI 'strategic' is often rational. those are big pools of money.

but usually campaigns are mixed and attribution is hard, even for smaller companies.

the tighter the budget, the more 'direct purchase', the more 'nominally efficient' it is.

also note - most ad $ is big companies who ironically spend a smaller share of their revenue on ads <- this is the power of scale.

reply
That does make sense, thanks
reply
"that $4.50 gross margin is stuffed into a system of relative inefficiency up and down the economy. much of it in 'nearly useless ads'." is easy to disprove because we know how much these companies spend on advertising (and marketing more broadly) and how much product they sell.

It's more like 25% of their budget.

https://www.statista.com/topics/7725/cpg-industry-advertisin...

reply
I didn't imply that all of their gross was going into ads.

I'm highlighting that the gross on commodity consumer goods is huge - and that it just pays for mounds of white collar bureaucracy, including advertising, and yes 25 points is about right.

Consider that companies pay more for advertising than COGS.

That should tell us something about 'productivity'

FB/Goog revenues could be cut by 60% and the good may very well flow just the same, aka they are not just capturing surplus but facilitate aggressive inefficient competition.

A western nation will post the $5.00 to the GDP when much of it is inefficient make-work.

This is why 'Pricing Parity' has to be used even to begin to compare relative wealth etc.

reply