> Right after nuclear bombs were first developed, they were used in an extremely public way to kill 200 000 people. This was enough of a cold shower that everyone was agreeable to a global non-proliferation treaty.
replyNot really. Before NPT you missed a small gap in there of 20 years where the USA and USSR built 10's of thousands of nuclear weapons and ICBMs.
And actually, public perception at the time saw Nuclear Weapons extremely favorably, as the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki ended the deadliest war in human history that killed 50-60 million people, most of which died excruciating deaths in trench warfare, fire bombing, chemical warfare, starvation and so on.
I mean, sure, the immediate cause of the NPT was the ability of everyone involved to foresee the possibility of a global nuclear war and judge it both worryingly likely and catastrophic. But I argue that the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombing was a major reason why this possibility was salient, rather than being treated as baseless conjecture. Whereas right now most people do treat the idea of AI x-risk as baseless conjecture, and this would be different if there was a "warning shot" to point to.
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