> Before December 2025 they were still intelligent code autocomplete or Stack Overflow bots

This is false. Coding agents have been usable since at least May of 2025. I can't speak to earlier than that as May last year was when I personally started using them.

> started one-shotting serious long horizon tasks.

They one-shot tasks for which there's a git clone one-liner, except worse.

My experience with them one shotting tasks is that it usually doesn't work if you try anything ambitious. You need agents iterating. And agents iterating isn't an LLM improvement. I did say tooling got better...