The problem with MAD is it's a deterministic framework. It doesn't properly account for the risk of a war caused by mistake.

If Stanislav Petrov hadn't been in the chain of command, MAD might not have worked. And it could still fail to work in the future.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov

(insert standard anthropic-principle counterargument)