> So… a nation-state can't really do anything here unless they acquire alien technology.

At least for the image itself, using direct projection onto the sensor (in a way similar to a retinal projector or film recorder) would be difficult to detect I imagine?

> it's also not possible to determine if a pair of images came from the same device.

It’s possible for Apple, as stated in the blog post (e.g. “which lets the device later produce signatures that Apple can attribute to that specific phone”).

You'll still need an iPhone, the verification is linked to the specific iPhone, and the specific iPhone is linked to you.

<< Apple Reference Image is not an id system;

I think you have a point. I would only note that just because it is not explicitly designed as one, does not mean it will not be effectively utilized in that manner.

EMPs are not "alien technology", and you don't need to be a nation state either. That said, Apple's hardware security is generally very good.